Implied Dissent

Thursday, November 10, 2005

I feel fine

Cowen points us to some Doomsday links, including this takedown of it. I think this idea is all a bunch of hooey, that is to say bullshit. The universe doesn't work this way, there is no set number of people who will ever live, so using this kind of Bayesian reasoning is like using a ruler to weigh yourself. Alternatively, the universe does work like this, so there is nothing we can do about it, we can't even choose to try to do anything about it, so whatever. Also, why would the end of humanity mean 'Doom'? That's a loaded word to use; humanity could end because we evolve so much that our descendents 1000 years in the future are a different species than we are. Or because the Flying Spaghetti Monster takes us all to Heaven. Read the links to learn some things about Bayesian reasoning, but you should look on the Doomsday Argument as the joke it is.

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