Implied Dissent

Monday, April 17, 2017

Over Unders

For season win totals in the NFL, I'm 14-6-1 on top picks. Worst season was 3-3. Nice.
The just completed NBA season of 3-3 puts my career NBA record at 19-9. Best season was 6-0, worst was 1-4 (those were the first two). Note this accounts for the fact that four of my 2014-15 picks were half picks.
Combined record: 33-15-1. 69%. Very nice.

Friday, April 14, 2017

NBA Playoffs 2017

Basically chalk again this year. As usual, I’ll give my predictions for all 4 rounds now, but you should only take my current round predictions even half seriously.

Round 1
Eastern Conference
#1 Boston Celtics vs. #8 Chicago Bulls. The Bulls ended the season well, but I don’t see it. Celts 4-1.
#2 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. #7 Indiana Pacers. Cavs a little too complacent to get the sweep. Cavs 4-1.
#3 Toronto Raptors vs. #6 Milwaukee Bucks. Raptors have best shot to take down the Cavs in East, but Giannis wins at least one. Raptors 4-1.
#4 Washington Wizards vs. #5 Atlanta Hawks. Probably a boring 7 gamer. Wizards 4-3.
Western Conference
#1 Golden State Warriors vs. #8 Portland Trail Blazers. GSW takes care of business. Warriors 4-0.
#2 San Antonio Spurs #7 Memphis Grizzlies. Too bad fear the bear doesn’t rhyme, and that Memphis doesn’t have enough anymore to make it a series. Spurs 4-1.
#3 Houston Rockets vs. #6 Oklahoma City Thunder. Probably the top 2 MVP vote getters facing off. Expect a close one. Rockets 4-3.
#4 LA Clippers vs. #5 Utah Jazz. The hardest one to call, but I think the Clips at their best are better, and I expect them to be that or close to it. Clippers 4-3.

Round 2
Eastern Conference
Celtics 4, Wizards 3.
Cavaliers 4, Raptors 2.
Western Conference
Warriors 4, Clippers 1.
Spurs 4, Rockets 3.

Round 3
Eastern Conference
Cavaliers 4, Celtics 1.
Western Conference
Warriors 4, Spurs 1.

NBA Finals
Warriors 4, Cavaliers 2.

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Sunday, February 05, 2017

Superbowl 2017

Round 1
4-0 picking winners, 1-3 against the spread.

Round 2
2-2 picking winners, 2-2 against the spread. So totals 6-2, and 3-5.

Round 3
2-0 picking winners, 2-0 against the spread. So totals are 8-2, and 5-5.

Superbowl
New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons, Patriots favored by 3. Over/under is 58.5. My math adds up to Patriots 31-24. Go Pats!

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Friday, January 20, 2017

NFL Playoffs 2016-17, Round 2



Round 1
4-0 picking winners, 1-3 against the spread.

Round 2
2-2 picking winners, 2-2 against the spread. So totals 6-2, and 3-5.

Round 3
Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons, Falcons favored by 5. Falcons 35-28.
Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots, Patriots favored by 6. Patriots 27-17.

Friday, January 13, 2017

NFL Playoffs 2016-17, Round 2

Round 1
4-0 picking winners, 1-3 against the spread.

Round 2
Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons, Falcons favored by 4.5. Seahawks 27-20.
Houston Texans at New England Patriots, Patriots favored by 16. Patriots 27-10.
Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys, Cowboys favored by 5. Cowboys 27-21.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs, Chiefs favored by 1. Chiefs 24-19.

Saturday, January 07, 2017

NFL Playoffs 2016-17, Round 1



First a review of previous years to make sure you know not to take this to the bank:

2016: 7-4 picking winners, 9-2 against the spread
2015: 8-3, 4-7
2014: 6-5, 4-5-2
2013: 4-6, 3-6-1
2012: 7-4, 5-6
2011: 7-4, 6-5
2010: 5-6, 4-7
2009: 7-4, 6-4-1
2008: 6-5, 3-7-1
2007: 7-4, 6-5
2006: 5-6, 5-6
2005: 8-3, 7-4
2004: 5-6, 2-8-1
2003: 8-3, 4-7

Totals: 90-63 picking winners (58.8%), 68-79-6 against the spread (46.3%). Going to try the same simple, perhaps dumb, system I used last year. Lines taken from http://www.footballlocks.com/nfl_lines.shtml.

Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans, Houston favored by 4. Texans 18-17.
Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks, Seattle favored by 8. Seahawks 26-17.
Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers, Pittsburgh favored by 10.5. Steelers 28-18.
NY Giants at Green Bay Packers, Green Bay favored by 5. Packers 25-21.

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Monday, October 24, 2016

NBA Predictions 2016-17

Take with the usual grain of salt. Over/Unders from Odds Shark.

Cleveland Cavaliers 59-23 (56.5)
Toronto Raptors 50-32 (50.5)
Miami Heat 33-49 (34.5)
Atlanta Hawks 42-40 (43.5)
Boston Celtics 53-29 (52.5)
Charlotte Hornets 41-41 (42.5)
Indiana Pacers 44-38 (44.5)
Detroit Pistons 44-38 (44.5)
Chicago Bulls 36-46 (38.5)
Washington Wizards  41-41 (42.5)
Orlando Magic  40-42 (37.5)
Milwaukee Bucks  36-46 (34.5)
New York Knicks  41-41 (38.5)
Brooklyn Nets  21-61 (20.5)
Philadelphia 76ers  23-59 (24.5)
Golden State Warriors 69-13 (66.5)
San Antonio Spurs 60-22 (58.5)
Oklahoma City Thunder 45-37 (43.5)
Los Angeles Clippers 50-32 (53.5)
Portland Trail Blazers 43-39 (45.5)
Dallas Mavericks 37-45 (38.5)
Memphis Grizzlies 33-49 (42.5)
Houston Rockets 41-41 (44)
Utah Jazz 47-35 (49)
Sacramento Kings  35-47 (34)
Denver Nuggets  35-47 (37)
New Orleans Pelicans  40-42 (37)
Minnesota Timberwolves  46-36 (40.5)
Phoenix Suns  23-59 (30)
Los Angeles Lakers  22-60 (24.5)

NBA Finals: The obvious matchup, Warriors over Cavaliers.
Favorite Overs: Golden State Warriors, Minnesota Timberwolves, Orlando Magic
Favorite Unders: Los Angeles Clippers, Memphis Grizzlies, Phoenix Suns

Review of record: 4-1 last year, bringing top picks record to 16-6. Nice. Overall last year went 10-20, bringing total record to 61-59.

Thursday, September 08, 2016

NFL Predictions 2016

Here are my NFL team win predictions, with Vegas over/under in parenthesis (via footballlocks).

Carolina Panthers: 12-4 (10.5)
New England Patriots: 12-4 (10.5)
Cincinnati Bengals: 11-5 (9.5)
Kansas City Chiefs: 11-5 (9.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers: 11-5 (10.5)
Denver Broncos: 11-5 (9.5)
Arizona Cardinals: 10-6 (9.5)
Seattle Seahawks: 10-6 (10.5)
Green Bay Packers: 10-6 (11)
New York Jets: 9-7 (7.5)
Minnesota Vikings: 9-7 (8.5)
Houston Texans: 9-7 (8.5)
Oakland Raiders: 9-7 (8.5)
Indianapolis Colts: 9-7 (9)
Buffalo Bills: 8-8 (8)
Washington Redskins: 8-8 (7.5)
Atlanta Falcons: 8-8 (7.5)
New York Giants: 8-8 (8)
Jacksonville Jaguars: 8-8 (7.5)
Baltimore Ravens: 7-9 (8.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 7-9 (7.5)
Dallas Cowboys: 7-9 (8)
Detroit Lions: 6-10 (7)
Chicago Bears: 6-10 (7.5)
New Orleans Saints: 6-10 (7.5)
Miami Dolphins: 6-10 (7)
San Diego Chargers: 6-10 (7.5)
LA Rams: 5-11 (7.5)
Philadelphia Eagles: 5-11 (6.5)
Tennessee Titans: 5-11 (5.5)
San Francisco 49ers: 4-12 (5.5)
Cleveland Browns: 3-13 (4.5)

Division winners: New England, Cincinnati, Houston, Kansas City; Washington, Green Bay, Carolina, Arizona. Wild cards: Pittsburgh, Denver; Minnesota, Seattle.
Superbowl: A two years ago rematch, New England over Seattle.

Favorite overs: New England, Kansas City, Cincinnati
Favorite under: LA

Review of prior years: Last year went 1-0, bringing top picks record to 11-5-1.

Standard disclaimers apply

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Thursday, June 02, 2016

NBA 2016 Finals

Got both conference finals winners right. So 11-3 picking series winners so far.

NBA Finals

Golden State Warriors with home-court against the Cleveland Cavaliers. A much better matchup this year than last, and wouldn't be shocked by either team winning. However, the Warriors are a bit better 2-3, and 4-12, and it's arguable whether Bron or Curry is better (no question on MVP, of course, but that's a regular season award). Add in home-court, and I'm going West. Warriors 4-3, for the repeat.

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Monday, May 16, 2016

NBA Playoffs 2016, Round 3

Round 3
Eastern Conference
#1 Cleveland Cavaliers against Toronto Raptors. Easy peasy. Cavs 4-1.
Western Conference
#1 Golden State Warriors vs. #3 Oklahoma City Thunder. Another great series in the West. Don’t sleep on OKC. Warriors 4-3.

NBA Finals
Golden State Warriors with home-court over the Cleveland Cavaliers. Warriors 4-3.

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Monday, May 02, 2016

NBA Playoffs 2016, Round 2 (part 2)

Now to fill in the TBDs.
#2 Toronto Raptors vs. #3 Miami Heat. Haven’t watched a lick of either team this postseason. Heat 4-2.
Still have them losing to Cleveland 4-1.

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Saturday, April 30, 2016

NBA Playoffs 2016, Round 2 (part 1)

The Western Conference will start up before the East wraps, so will post what I can now. Still chalk.

Round 2
Eastern Conference
#1 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. #4 Atlanta Hawks. The Hawks are pretty good, the Cavs are excellent. Cavs 4-1.
TBD vs. TBD
Western Conference
#1 Golden State Warriors vs. #5 Portland Trail Blazers. With Curry it’d be a sweep. With him out, probably they drop 1. Warriors 4-1.
#2 San Antonio Spurs vs. #3 Oklahoma City Thunder. San Antonio is the better team, but I like how OKC matches up. It’ll be a close one. San Antonio 4-3.

Round 3
Eastern Conference
#1 Cleveland Cavaliers against TBD. Cavs 4-1.
Western Conference
#1 Golden State Warriors vs. #2 San Antonio Spurs. Warriors 4-3.

NBA Finals
Golden State Warriors with home-court over the Cleveland Cavaliers. Warriors 4-3.

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