Implied Dissent

Saturday, January 13, 2018

NFL Playoffs 2017-18, Round 2

Well, last round didn't go well. Moving on....
Falcons at Eagles, Falcons favored by 3. My system doesn't know about Wentz/Foles, and says Eagles 32-20. I'm going to hazard a guess and adjust that to Eagles 23-20.
Titans at Patriots, Patriots favored by 13.5. Patriots 33-17. I will note my checkered history of picking a Pats blowout postseason win, but I feel good about this.
Jaguars at Steelers, Steelers favored by 7.5. Steelers 23-21.
Saints at Vikings, Vikings favored by 5. Vikings 27-20.

Saturday, January 06, 2018

NFL Playoffs 2017-18, Round 1

Forgot to post this earlier, will cleanup and do review later. I didn't look at the in-progress first game before posting.
Titans at Chiefs, Chiefs 28-17.
Falcons at Rams, Rams 30-20.
Bills at Jaguars, Jaguars 30-14.
Panthers at Saints, Saints 30-21.

Update:
Chiefs were favored by 9, so double wrong there.
Rams were favored by 6, so double wrong there.
Jaguars were favored by 9, so wrong against the spread.
Saints were favored by 7, tbd.
Lines taken from The Ringer
Previous years:
2017: 9-2 picking winners, 6-5 against the spread
2016: 7-4, 9-2
2015: 8-3, 4-7
2014: 6-5, 4-5-2
2013: 4-6, 3-6-1
2012: 7-4, 5-6
2011: 7-4, 6-5
2010: 5-6, 4-7
2009: 7-4, 6-4-1
2008: 6-5, 3-7-1
2007: 7-4, 6-5
2006: 5-6, 5-6
2005: 8-3, 7-4
2004: 5-6, 2-8-1
2003: 8-3, 4-7
Totals: 99-65 picking winners (60.4%), 74-84-6 against the spread (46.8%).

Tuesday, October 17, 2017

NBA Predictions 2017-18

Take with the usual grain of salt. Actually, I don’t feel like I have much feel for this season, so take this with a lot of grains of salt. Over/Unders from Odds Shark.

Boston Celtics - Wins 55, O/U 55.5, Over Odds 120, Under Odds -150
Cleveland Cavaliers - Wins 49, O/U 53.5, Over Odds -145, Under Odds 115
Toronto Raptors - Wins 47, O/U 48.5, Over Odds -125, Under Odds -105
Washington Wizards - Wins 47, O/U 48, Over Odds -125, Under Odds -105
Atlanta Hawks - Wins 22, O/U 25.5, Over Odds -125, Under Odds -105
Milwaukee Bucks - Wins 45, O/U 47.5, Over Odds -105, Under Odds -125
Indiana Pacers - Wins 30, O/U 31.5, Over Odds -105, Under Odds -125
Chicago Bulls - Wins 20, O/U 22, Over Odds -115, Under Odds -115
Miami Heat - Wins 43, O/U 43.5, Over Odds -125, Under Odds -105
Detroit Pistons - Wins 38, O/U 38.5, Over Odds -115, Under Odds -115
Charlotte Hornets - Wins 40, O/U 42.5, Over Odds -130, Under Odds Even
New York Knicks - Wins 31, O/U 30.5, Over Odds 120, Under Odds -150
Orlando Magic - Wins 29, O/U 33.5, Over Odds -105, Under Odds -125
Philadelphia 76ers - Wins 41, O/U 41.5, Over Odds 145, Under Odds -175
Brooklyn Nets - Wins 30, O/U 27.5, Over Odds -115, Under Odds -115
Golden State Warriors - Wins 65, O/U 67.5, Over Odds -125, Under Odds -105
San Antonio Spurs - Wins 56, O/U 54.5, Over Odds -125, Under Odds -105
Houston Rockets - Wins 56, O/U 55.5, Over Odds -130, Under Odds Even
Los Angeles Clippers - Wins 43, O/U 43.5, Over Odds -125, Under Odds -105
Utah Jazz - Wins 42, O/U 41, Over Odds -130, Under Odds Even
Oklahoma City Thunder - Wins 57, O/U 50.5, Over Odds -200, Under Odds 160
Memphis Grizzlies - Wins 37, O/U 37.5, Over Odds -115, Under Odds -115
Portland Trail Blazers - Wins 41, O/U 42.5, Over Odds -125, Under Odds -105
Denver Nuggets - Wins 45, O/U 45.5, Over Odds -115, Under Odds -115
New Orleans Pelicans - Wins 41, O/U 39.5, Over Odds -115, Under Odds -115
Dallas Mavericks - Wins 34, O/U 35.5, Over Odds -115, Under Odds -115
Sacramento Kings - Wins 33, O/U 27.5, Over Odds -125, Under Odds -105
Minnesota Timberwolves - Wins 48, O/U 48.5, Over Odds -115, Under Odds -115
Los Angeles Lakers - Wins 35, O/U 33.5, Over Odds -125, Under Odds -105
Phoenix Suns - Wins 30, O/U 29, Over Odds -105, Under Odds -125

NBA Finals: Again the obvious one, GSW over the Cavs. Don't sleep on Boston, though.
Favorite Overs: Brooklyn Nets and LA Lakers (yuck)
Favorite Under: Cleveland

Review of record: 3-3 last year, bringing top picks record to 19-9.

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Thursday, September 07, 2017

NFL Predictions 2017

Here are my NFL team win predictions, with Vegas over/under in parenthesis (via footballlocks).

New England Patriots: 13-3 (12.5)
Atlanta Falcons: 9-7 (9.5)
Dallas Cowboys: 8-8 (9)
Kansas City Chiefs: 10-6 (9)
Pittsburgh Steelers: 10-6 (10.5)
Seattle Seahawks: 11-5 (10.5)
Arizona Cardinals: 9-7 (8.5)
Green Bay Packers: 10-6 (10.5)
Denver Broncos: 10-6 (8)
Philadelphia Eagles: 10-6 (8.5)
Oakland Raiders: 11-5 (9.5)
New York Giants: 9-7 (9)
Baltimore Ravens: 7-9 (8.5)
Buffalo Bills: 6-10 (6.5)
Minnesota Vikings: 9-7 (8.5)
Indianapolis Colts: 6-10 (7.5)
New Orleans Saints: 8-8 (8)
Washington Redskins: 7-9 (7.5)
Cincinnati Bengals: 9-7 (8.5)
Tennessee Titans: 8-8 (9)
Detroit Lions: 7-9 (7.5)
Los Angeles Chargers: 8-8 (7.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 9-7 (8.5)
Miami Dolphins: 8-8 (7.5)
Carolina Panthers: 9-7 (9)
Houston Texans: 8-8 (8.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars: 6-10 (6.5)
Chicago Bears: 5-11 (5.5)
New York Jets: 3-13 (3.5)
Los Angeles Rams: 5-11 (5.5)
San Francisco 49ers: 4-12 (5)
Cleveland Browns: 4-12 (4.5)

Division winners: New England, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Oakland, Philadelphia, Green Bay, Carolina, Seattle. Wild cards: Cincinnati, Kansas City, Minnesota, Arizona.
Superbowl: New England over Green Bay

Favorite overs: Oakland
Favorite under: none

Review of prior years: Last year went 3-1, bringing top picks record to 14-6-1.

Standard disclaimers apply

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Thursday, June 01, 2017

2017 NBA Finals

Got both conference finals right, for what it’s worth. I know I’m a little late posting this, but my view hasn’t changed.

Review of Round 1
Winners I got right: Celtics, Cavaliers, Raptors, Wizards, Warriors, Spurs, Rockets. Wrong on the Clippers. So 7-1.
Winners I got right with the right number of games: Warriors.

Review of Round 2
Winners I got right: Warriors, Cavaliers. Wrong on the Rockets and Wizards.

Review of Round 3
Winners I got right: Warriors, Cavaliers. Plus the right number of games for the Cavs.

NBA Finals
Golden State Warriors with home-court against the Cleveland Cavaliers. Cleveland is the champ, and they have Bron, so they have a chance. Plus Mike Brown is the opposing coach. However, GSW is too good, their D is way way better than Cleveland’s. I’m hoping for 7, but The Warriors get it done in 5. Warriors 4-1.

Sunday, May 14, 2017

NBA Playoffs 2016, Round 3

The Western Conference will start up before the East wraps, but again it really doesn’t matter much.

Review of Round 1Winners I got right: Celtics, Cavaliers, Raptors, Wizards, Warriors, Spurs, Rockets. Wrong on the Clippers. So 7-1.
Winners I got right with the right number of games: Warriors.

Review of Round 2
Winners I got right: Warriors, Cavaliers. Potentially the Wizards. Wrong on the Rockets.

Round 3
#1 Boston Celtics vs. #2 Cleveland Cavaliers, or #2 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. #4 Washington Wizards. Either way, Cavs 4-1. LeBron is too good.
#1 Golden State Warriors vs. #2 San Antonio Spurs. Warriors 4-1. GSW is too good.

NBA Finals
Warriors 4, Cavaliers 1. LBJ gives them a chance, but don't expect a letdown from the dubs this time around.

Saturday, April 29, 2017

NBA Playoffs 2016, Round 2

The Eastern Conference will start up before the West wraps, but it really doesn’t matter much. At most I might switch from 5 to 4 games based on what happens in the Jazz-Clips game 7.

Review of Round 1
Winners I got right: Celtics, Cavaliers, Raptors, Wizards, Warriors, Spurs, Rockets. TBD on Clippers. Potentially 8-0.
Winners and the number of games I got right: Warriors. TBD on Clips.

Round 2
Eastern Conference
#1 Boston Celtics vs. #4 Washington Wizards. I want to be wrong on this, but I don’t think the Celtics have the extra gear they need to go far in the playoffs. Wizards 4-2.
#2 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. #3 Toronto Raptors. Still think the Raps have the best chance in the East of taking down the Cavs, but they definitely did not fill me with confidence in the first round. Cavaliers 4-2.
Western Conference
#1 Golden State Warriors vs. #4 LA Clippers or #5 Utah Jazz. Could easily be a sweep, but I think the lower seed pulls out one at home. Warriors 4-1.
#2 San Antonio Spurs vs. #3 Houston Rockets. The hardest call for me, but I feel like the Spurs are vulnerable and the Rockets offense will light them up. Rockets 4-2.

Round 3
Cavs 4, Wizards 1.
Warriors 4, Rockets 1.

NBA Finals
Warriors 4, Cavaliers 2.

Monday, April 17, 2017

Over Unders

For season win totals in the NFL, I'm 14-6-1 on top picks. Worst season was 3-3. Nice.
The just completed NBA season of 3-3 puts my career NBA record at 19-9. Best season was 6-0, worst was 1-4 (those were the first two). Note this accounts for the fact that four of my 2014-15 picks were half picks.
Combined record: 33-15-1. 69%. Very nice.

Friday, April 14, 2017

NBA Playoffs 2017

Basically chalk again this year. As usual, I’ll give my predictions for all 4 rounds now, but you should only take my current round predictions even half seriously.

Round 1
Eastern Conference
#1 Boston Celtics vs. #8 Chicago Bulls. The Bulls ended the season well, but I don’t see it. Celts 4-1.
#2 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. #7 Indiana Pacers. Cavs a little too complacent to get the sweep. Cavs 4-1.
#3 Toronto Raptors vs. #6 Milwaukee Bucks. Raptors have best shot to take down the Cavs in East, but Giannis wins at least one. Raptors 4-1.
#4 Washington Wizards vs. #5 Atlanta Hawks. Probably a boring 7 gamer. Wizards 4-3.
Western Conference
#1 Golden State Warriors vs. #8 Portland Trail Blazers. GSW takes care of business. Warriors 4-0.
#2 San Antonio Spurs #7 Memphis Grizzlies. Too bad fear the bear doesn’t rhyme, and that Memphis doesn’t have enough anymore to make it a series. Spurs 4-1.
#3 Houston Rockets vs. #6 Oklahoma City Thunder. Probably the top 2 MVP vote getters facing off. Expect a close one. Rockets 4-3.
#4 LA Clippers vs. #5 Utah Jazz. The hardest one to call, but I think the Clips at their best are better, and I expect them to be that or close to it. Clippers 4-3.

Round 2
Eastern Conference
Celtics 4, Wizards 3.
Cavaliers 4, Raptors 2.
Western Conference
Warriors 4, Clippers 1.
Spurs 4, Rockets 3.

Round 3
Eastern Conference
Cavaliers 4, Celtics 1.
Western Conference
Warriors 4, Spurs 1.

NBA Finals
Warriors 4, Cavaliers 2.

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Sunday, February 05, 2017

Superbowl 2017

Round 1
4-0 picking winners, 1-3 against the spread.

Round 2
2-2 picking winners, 2-2 against the spread. So totals 6-2, and 3-5.

Round 3
2-0 picking winners, 2-0 against the spread. So totals are 8-2, and 5-5.

Superbowl
New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons, Patriots favored by 3. Over/under is 58.5. My math adds up to Patriots 31-24. Go Pats!

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Friday, January 20, 2017

NFL Playoffs 2016-17, Round 2



Round 1
4-0 picking winners, 1-3 against the spread.

Round 2
2-2 picking winners, 2-2 against the spread. So totals 6-2, and 3-5.

Round 3
Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons, Falcons favored by 5. Falcons 35-28.
Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots, Patriots favored by 6. Patriots 27-17.

Friday, January 13, 2017

NFL Playoffs 2016-17, Round 2

Round 1
4-0 picking winners, 1-3 against the spread.

Round 2
Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons, Falcons favored by 4.5. Seahawks 27-20.
Houston Texans at New England Patriots, Patriots favored by 16. Patriots 27-10.
Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys, Cowboys favored by 5. Cowboys 27-21.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs, Chiefs favored by 1. Chiefs 24-19.