Implied Dissent

Thursday, September 08, 2016

NFL Predictions 2016

Here are my NFL team win predictions, with Vegas over/under in parenthesis (via footballlocks).

Carolina Panthers: 12-4 (10.5)
New England Patriots: 12-4 (10.5)
Cincinnati Bengals: 11-5 (9.5)
Kansas City Chiefs: 11-5 (9.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers: 11-5 (10.5)
Denver Broncos: 11-5 (9.5)
Arizona Cardinals: 10-6 (9.5)
Seattle Seahawks: 10-6 (10.5)
Green Bay Packers: 10-6 (11)
New York Jets: 9-7 (7.5)
Minnesota Vikings: 9-7 (8.5)
Houston Texans: 9-7 (8.5)
Oakland Raiders: 9-7 (8.5)
Indianapolis Colts: 9-7 (9)
Buffalo Bills: 8-8 (8)
Washington Redskins: 8-8 (7.5)
Atlanta Falcons: 8-8 (7.5)
New York Giants: 8-8 (8)
Jacksonville Jaguars: 8-8 (7.5)
Baltimore Ravens: 7-9 (8.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 7-9 (7.5)
Dallas Cowboys: 7-9 (8)
Detroit Lions: 6-10 (7)
Chicago Bears: 6-10 (7.5)
New Orleans Saints: 6-10 (7.5)
Miami Dolphins: 6-10 (7)
San Diego Chargers: 6-10 (7.5)
LA Rams: 5-11 (7.5)
Philadelphia Eagles: 5-11 (6.5)
Tennessee Titans: 5-11 (5.5)
San Francisco 49ers: 4-12 (5.5)
Cleveland Browns: 3-13 (4.5)

Division winners: New England, Cincinnati, Houston, Kansas City; Washington, Green Bay, Carolina, Arizona. Wild cards: Pittsburgh, Denver; Minnesota, Seattle.
Superbowl: A two years ago rematch, New England over Seattle.

Favorite overs: New England, Kansas City, Cincinnati
Favorite under: LA

Standard disclaimers apply

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Thursday, June 02, 2016

NBA 2016 Finals

Got both conference finals winners right. So 11-3 picking series winners so far.

NBA Finals

Golden State Warriors with home-court against the Cleveland Cavaliers. A much better matchup this year than last, and wouldn't be shocked by either team winning. However, the Warriors are a bit better 2-3, and 4-12, and it's arguable whether Bron or Curry is better (no question on MVP, of course, but that's a regular season award). Add in home-court, and I'm going West. Warriors 4-3, for the repeat.

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Monday, May 16, 2016

NBA Playoffs 2016, Round 3

Round 3
Eastern Conference
#1 Cleveland Cavaliers against Toronto Raptors. Easy peasy. Cavs 4-1.
Western Conference
#1 Golden State Warriors vs. #3 Oklahoma City Thunder. Another great series in the West. Don’t sleep on OKC. Warriors 4-3.

NBA Finals
Golden State Warriors with home-court over the Cleveland Cavaliers. Warriors 4-3.

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Monday, May 02, 2016

NBA Playoffs 2016, Round 2 (part 2)

Now to fill in the TBDs.
#2 Toronto Raptors vs. #3 Miami Heat. Haven’t watched a lick of either team this postseason. Heat 4-2.
Still have them losing to Cleveland 4-1.

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Saturday, April 30, 2016

NBA Playoffs 2016, Round 2 (part 1)

The Western Conference will start up before the East wraps, so will post what I can now. Still chalk.

Round 2
Eastern Conference
#1 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. #4 Atlanta Hawks. The Hawks are pretty good, the Cavs are excellent. Cavs 4-1.
TBD vs. TBD
Western Conference
#1 Golden State Warriors vs. #5 Portland Trail Blazers. With Curry it’d be a sweep. With him out, probably they drop 1. Warriors 4-1.
#2 San Antonio Spurs vs. #3 Oklahoma City Thunder. San Antonio is the better team, but I like how OKC matches up. It’ll be a close one. San Antonio 4-3.

Round 3
Eastern Conference
#1 Cleveland Cavaliers against TBD. Cavs 4-1.
Western Conference
#1 Golden State Warriors vs. #2 San Antonio Spurs. Warriors 4-3.

NBA Finals
Golden State Warriors with home-court over the Cleveland Cavaliers. Warriors 4-3.

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Saturday, April 16, 2016

NBA Playoffs 2016

I wish I had a contrarian take on this year’s playoffs, but I think it’ll be largely chalk. As usual, I’ll give my predictions for all 4 rounds now, but you should only take my current round predictions even half seriously.

Round 1
Eastern Conference
#1 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. #8 Detroit Pistons. The Cavs are vulnerable, but I don’t see it against Detroit. Cavs 4-1.
#2 Toronto Raptors vs. #7 Indiana Pacers. Indy finished the season strong, but that was largely schedule-based. Love PG, but the Raps are better. Raptors 4-1.
#3 Miami Heat vs. Charlotte Hornets. I continue to doubt the Hornets a bit, though they are clearly much better than I gave them credit for (who knew Marvin Williams would become good?). Heat 4-3.
#4 Atlanta Hawks vs. Boston Celtics. Should be a great series. I’m a bit biased, but I have to admit the Hawks have largely owned the C’s. Hawks 4-3. Go Celts.
Western Conference
#1 Golden State Warriors vs. #8 Houston Rockets. Only question is if it’s a sweep. Warriors 4-0.
#2 San Antonio Spurs vs. #7 Memphis Grizzlies. Spurs 4-0.
#3 Oklahoma Thunder vs. #6 Dallas Mavericks. Carlisle is a much better coach, but I don’t see it. Thunder 4-1.
#4 Los Angeles Clippers vs. #5 Portland Trail Blazers. Will be interesting to see how Blake plays. Clips 4-3.

Round 2
Eastern Conference
#1 Cavaliers vs. #4 Hawks. Cavs 4-1.
#2 Raptors vs. #3 Heat. Raps 4-3.
Western Conference
#1 Warriors vs. #4 Clippers. Warriors 4-1.
#2 Spurs vs. #3 Thunder. Either 5 or 7….I’ll go with Spurs 4-1.

Round 3
Eastern Conference
#1 Cavs vs. #2 Raps. Cavs 4-3.
Western Conference
#1 Warriors vs. #2 Spurs. Been saying for a while whoever had home-court would win this. Warriors 4-3.

NBA Finals
Warriors with home-court against the Cavs. Warriors 4-1.

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Saturday, February 06, 2016

Superbowl 2016

Round 1
2-2 picking winners, 4-0 against the spread.

Round 2
4-0 picking winners, 3-1 against the spread.

Round 3
1-1 picking winners, 2-0 against the spread. So, overall I’m 7-3 and 9-1. I don’t understand it either, other than luck. However, I’m definitely sticking with my system for now (even with the weird score it’s spitting out). 

Superbowl
Denver Broncos and Carolina Panthers, Panthers favored by 5.5. Great defense against an excellent offense usually wins. However, the other side is an excellent defense against a middling offense, which seems a bigger difference. Go with Cam. Panthers 25-19.

Saturday, January 23, 2016

NFL Playoffs 2014-15, Round 3

Round 1
2-2 picking winners, 4-0 against the spread.

Round 2
4-0 picking winners, 3-1 against the spread. Overall 6-2 and 7-1. I’m more shocked than you are.

Round 3
New England Patriots at Denver Broncos, Patriots favored by 3. I’m uncomfortable with how almost all pundits are writing off the Broncos. That’s a stout defense, so don’t write them off. Plus my simple and really stupid method of picking has been working, so I’m going to stick with it. Patriots 22-21.

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers, Panthers favored by 3. Weather is a wild card, but I think it favors the cats. Panthers 29-24.

Saturday, January 16, 2016

NFL Playoffs 2014-15, Round 2

Round 1
2-2 picking winners, 4-0 against the spread.

Round 2
Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots, Patriots favored by 5. Even given the opponents, the Chiefs’ streak is impressive. However, if the Pats are at full strength they are clearly the better team. I'm guessing rust keeps it close, but Edelman and Vollmer have to be better than the guys they’ve been running out there. Patriots 27-21

Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals, Cardinals favored by 7. The Packers are good, the Cards are excellent or maybe better than that. Cards 31-20.

Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers, Panthers favored by 2.5. Most games between these teams are close wins by Seattle. However, Carolina is better than they’ve been in past years, and Seattle is significantly worse on the road. Panthers 28-21.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos, Broncos favored by 7.5. There is no telling what will happen in this game. Manning could put up a perfect game, or a goose egg. Roethlisberger could dominate, or could throw 3 pick-sixes. However, I don’t see a Denver blowout as likely, so take the points. Broncos 23-20.

Saturday, January 09, 2016

NFL Playoffs 2015-16, Round 1

First a review of previous years:
2015: 8-3 picking winners, 4-7 against the spread
2014: 6-5, 4-5-2
2013: 4-6, 3-6-1
2012: 7-4, 5-6
2011: 7-4, 6-5
2010: 5-6, 4-7
2009: 7-4, 6-4-1
2008: 6-5, 3-7-1
2007: 7-4, 6-5
2006: 5-6, 5-6
2005: 8-3, 7-4
2004: 5-6, 2-8-1
2003: 8-3, 4-7
Totals: 83-59 picking winners (58.5%), 59-77-6 against the spread (43.4%). So maybe bad enough to use me as a negative indicator. Putting really little thought into it this time.

Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans, KC favored by 3. Chiefs 23-20 (call it 23.5-20 for spread purposes).
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals, Pittsburgh favored by 2.5. Bengals 24-20.
Seattle Seahawks at Minnesota Vikings, Seattle favored by 4. Seahawks 22-20.
Green Bay Packers at Washington Professional Football Team, Washington favored by 1.5. PFT 21-20.

Monday, October 26, 2015

NBA Predictions 2015-16

Take with the usual grain (or bucket) of salt.

Eastern Conference
Atlanta Hawks - 50-32 (50.5)
Cleveland Cavaliers - 53-29 (57.5)
Chicago Bulls - 51-31 (49.5)
Toronto Raptors - 43-39 (46.5)
Washington Wizards - 49-33 (45.5)
Milwaukee Bucks - 43-39 (44.5)
Boston Celtics - 48-34 (43.5)
Brooklyn Nets - 26-56 (28)
Indiana Pacers - 41-41 (40.5)
Miami Heat - 45-37 (47.5)
Charlotte Hornets - 24-58 (31.5)
Detroit Pistons - 33-49 (36)
Orlando Magic - 36-46 (34.5)
Philadelphia 76ers - 24-58 (20)
New York Knicks - 32-50 (28.5)

Western Conference
Golden State Warriors - 62-20 (59.5)
Houston Rockets - 55-27 (55.5)
Los Angeles Clippers - 54-28 (57)
Portland Trail Blazers - 29-53 (26.5)
Memphis Grizzlies - 48-34 (50.5)
San Antonio Spurs - 55-27 (57)
Dallas Mavericks - 41-41 (36.5)
New Orleans Pelicans - 47-35 (48)
Oklahoma City Thunder - 54-28 (57)
Phoenix Suns - 31-51 (36.5)
Utah Jazz - 39-43 (42.5)
Denver Nuggets - 30-52 (27)
Sacramento Kings - 36-46 (35)
Los Angeles Lakers - 27-55 (28.5)
Minnesota Timberwolves - 24-58 (27.5)

NBA Finals: Cavs over Warriors
Favorite Over: Celtics. Highly confident on this one; count it twice.
Favorite Unders: Cavaliers (resting guys), Hornets, Suns.

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Thursday, September 10, 2015

NFL predictions 2015

Will add the Vegas over/unders, but I'm pretty sure my only favorite call is Minnesota over. I know, only one is lame, but that's how it is. Standard disclaimers apply.

Super Bowl: Colts over Packers

(Vegas over/under in parenthesis, taken from Footballlocks.com)



New England Patriots 10-6 (11)
Buffalo Bills 7-9 (8.5)
Miami Dolphins 9-7 (9)
New York Jets 6-10 (7.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers 10-6 (8.5)
Cincinnati Bengals 9-7 (8.5)
Baltimore Ravens 9-7 (9.5)
Cleveland Browns 6-10 (6.5)
Indianapolis Colts 11-5 (10.5)
Houston Texans 8-8 (8.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars 6-10 (5.5)
Tennessee Titans 6-10 (5.5)
Denver Broncos 10-6 (10.5)
Kansas City Chiefs 8-8 (8.5)
San Diego Chargers 9-7 (8.5)
Oakland Raiders 6-10 (6)
Dallas Cowboys 10-6 (9.5)
Philadelphia Eagles 10-6 (9.5)
New York Giants 9-7 (8)
Washington Redskins 6-10 (6.5)
Green Bay Packers 11-5 (11)
Detroit Lions 7-9 (8.5)
Minnesota Vikings 10-6 (7.5)
Chicago Bears 5-11 (6.5)
Carolina Panthers 7-9 (8)
New Orleans Saints 7-9 (8.5)
Atlanta Falcons 8-8 (8.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6-10 (6)
Seattle Seahawks 10-6 (11)
Arizona Cardinals 7-9 (8.5)
San Francisco 49ers 6-10 (6.5)
St. Louis Rams 7-9 (8)

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