Implied Dissent

Tuesday, October 16, 2018

NBA Predictions 2018-19

Take with the usual grain of salt. Over/Unders from Odds Shark.
Boston Celtics 59-23 O/U 58.5
Toronto Raptors 57-25 O/U 55.5
Philadelphia 76ers 56-26 O/U 53.5
Milwaukee Bucks 54-28 O/U 48
Indiana Pacers 44-38 O/U 47.5
Washington Wizards 43-39 O/U 44.5
Cleveland Cavaliers 41-41 O/U 30.5
Miami Heat 41-41 O/U n/a
Detroit Pistons 39-43 O/U 38
Charlotte Hornets 39-43 O/U 36
New York Knicks 33-49 O/U 29.5
Brooklyn Nets 30-52 O/U 32
Orlando Magic 27-55 O/U 31
Atlanta Hawks 27-55 O/U 23.5
Chicago Bulls 26-56 O/U 29.5

Golden State Warriors 59-23 O/U 63.5
Houston Rockets 55-27 O/U 55.5
Utah Jazz 53-29 O/U 49.5
Los Angeles Lakers 52-30 O/U 48.5
Oklahoma City Thunder 45-37 O/U 48.5
New Orleans Pelicans 45-37 O/U 45.5
Minnesota Timberwolves 44-38 O/U n/a
Denver Nuggets 44-38 O/U 47.5
Portland Trail Blazers 42-40 O/U 42
San Antonio Spurs 41-41 O/U 44.5
Los Angeles Clippers 40-42 O/U 36.5
Dallas Mavericks 28-54 O/U 34.5
Memphis Grizzlies 23-59 O/U 33.5
Sacramento Kings 22-60 O/U 26
Phoenix Suns 21-61 O/U 29.5

NBA Finals: Warriors over Celtics. Toyed with Raptors being the ones to lose to GSW, but need to see it from Kawhi in general and Lowry in playoffs to go that far.
Favorite overs: Milwaukee, Utah, LA Lakers
Favorite unders: Oklahoma City, Orlando.

Review of record: 3-0 last year, bringing NBA top picks record to 22-9.

Labels: ,

Tuesday, September 18, 2018

Apropos of nothing

Some things are binary, some are not. What one person means by believe can be very different from what another does. One can understand why someone would wait many years to come forward with a true allegation, and also know that celebrity and politics sometimes bring out crazies and or false attacks. So take accusations seriously, and do what can be done to determine their truth. And if the result is any reasonable level of chance of their truth (seriousness also an important qualifier in some cases, though not necessarily today), don’t put the accused into a lifetime term to a super important job. It isn’t about a person (as unfair as that will sometimes be to some people), it’s about the country, and finding the best person we can for the job, given the uncertainties that always exist along multiple dimensions with any decision.

Wednesday, September 05, 2018

NFL Predictions 2018

Here are my NFL team win predictions, with Vegas over/under in parenthesis. That is followed by the odds for the over, then the odds for the under, then my interpretation of what those two odds mean is the implied likelihood of the team going over. (via https://www.oddsshark.com/nfl/nfl-over-under-win-totals).

AFC East
New England Patriots: 11-5 (11) Over -140 Under +110 Chance Over 55%
Buffalo Bills: 5-11 (6) Over +170 Under -210 Chance Over 35%
Miami Dolphins: 6-10 (6.5) Over -135 Under +105 Chance Over 54%
New York Jets: 6-10 (6) Over -105 Under -125 Chance Over 48%
AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers: 8-8 (10.5) Over -105 Under -125 Chance Over 48%
Baltimore Ravens: 7-9 (8) Over -180 Under +150 Chance Over 62%
Cincinnati Bengals: 7-9 (6.5) Over -200 Under +160 Chance Over 64%
Cleveland Browns: 5-11 (5.5) Over -160 Under +130 Chance Over 59%
AFC South
Jacksonville Jaguars: 10-6 (9) Over -135 Under +105 Chance Over 54%
Tennessee Titans: 8-8 (8) Over -110 Under -120 Chance Over 49%
Houston Texans: 9-7 (8.5) Over -150 Under +120 Chance Over 57%
Indianapolis Colts: 7-9 (6.5) Over -190 Under +155 Chance Over 63%
AFC West
Kansas City Chiefs: 9-7 (8.5) Over -115 Under -115 Chance Over 50%
Los Angeles Chargers: 9-7 (9.5) Over -125 Under -105 Chance Over 52%
Oakland Raiders: 5-11 (7.5) Over +110 Under -140 Chance Over 45%
Denver Broncos: 8-8 (7) Over -160 Under +130 Chance Over 59%
NFC East
Philadelphia Eagles: 11-5 (10) Over -125 Under -105 Chance Over 52%
Dallas Cowboys: 8-8 (8.5) Over +120 Under -150 Chance Over 43%
Washington Redskins: 7-9 (7) Over -135 Under +105 Chance Over 54%
New York Giants: 6-10 (7) Over -145 Under +115 Chance Over 56%
NFC North
Minnesota Vikings: 11-5 (10) Over -160 Under +130 Chance Over 59%
Detroit Lions: 7-9 (7.5) Over -115 Under -115 Chance Over 50%
Green Bay Packers: 10-6 (10) Over -130 Under +100 Chance Over 53%
Chicago Bears: 9-7 (6.5) Over -140 Under +110 Chance Over 55%
NFC South
New Orleans Saints: 10-6 (9.5) Over -145 Under +115 Chance Over 56%
Carolina Panthers: 9-7 (9) Over +150 Under -180 Chance Over 38%
Atlanta Falcons: 10-6 (9) Over -160 Under +130 Chance Over 59%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 6-10 (6.5) Over +135 Under -165 Chance Over 40%
NFC West
Los Angeles Rams: 12-4 (10) Over -140 Under +110 Chance Over 55%
Seattle Seahawks: 6-10 (8) Over +140 Under -170 Chance Over 39%
Arizona Cardinals: 6-10 (5.5) Over -200 Under +170 Chance Over 65%
San Francisco 49ers: 8-8 (8.5) Over +140 Under -170 Chance Over 39%

AFC division winners: New England (#1 seed), Jacksonville (#2 seed), LA Chargers (#3 seed), Pittsburgh (#4 seed). Wild cards: Houston and Kansas City.

NFC division winners: LA Rams (#1 seed), Philadelphia (#2 seed), Minnesota (#3 seed), Atlanta (#4 seed). Wild cards: Green Bay and New Orleans.

Superbowl: New England over LA. Got to keep going with the Pats until they’re done.

Favorite overs: Bears, Rams
Favorite unders: Steelers, Seahawks, Raiders

Review of prior years: Last year 0-1, bringing NFL top picks record to 14-7-1.

Labels: ,

Sunday, February 04, 2018

Superbowl 2018

Round 1
2-2 picking winners, 0-4 against the spread.

Round 2
3-1 picking winners, 3-0-1 against the spread.

Round 3
1-1 picking winners, 1-1 against the spread. So totals 6-4, 4-5-1.

Super Bowl
New England Patriots vs. Philadelphia Eagles, Patriots favored by 5.5. So my system predicts 24-24; Hmm. Foles has been great, but still a bit skeptical of him, so knocking 4 points off for that. Eagles D is excellent, but there’s an obvious way for Pats to overcome it, so bumping them up 3 points for that. Patriots 27-20.

Saturday, January 20, 2018

NFL Playoffs 2017-18, Round 3

That was much better. To do an actual review:

Round 1
2-2 picking winners, 0-4 against the spread.

Round 2
3-1 picking winners, 3-0-1 against the spread. So totals 5-3, 3-4-1.

Round 3
Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots, Patriots favored by 7.5. Don't underestimate the Jags' D and running game. Pats 23-20.
Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles, Vikings favored by 3. The base system says Eagles 24-20, I'm Foles-adjusting that to Vikings 20-17. Call it 20.5-17 for picking purposes.

Saturday, January 13, 2018

NFL Playoffs 2017-18, Round 2

Well, last round didn't go well. Moving on....
Falcons at Eagles, Falcons favored by 3. My system doesn't know about Wentz/Foles, and says Eagles 32-20. I'm going to hazard a guess and adjust that to Eagles 23-20.
Titans at Patriots, Patriots favored by 13.5. Patriots 33-17. I will note my checkered history of picking a Pats blowout postseason win, but I feel good about this.
Jaguars at Steelers, Steelers favored by 7.5. Steelers 23-21.
Saints at Vikings, Vikings favored by 5. Vikings 27-20.

Saturday, January 06, 2018

NFL Playoffs 2017-18, Round 1

Forgot to post this earlier, will cleanup and do review later. I didn't look at the in-progress first game before posting.
Titans at Chiefs, Chiefs 28-17.
Falcons at Rams, Rams 30-20.
Bills at Jaguars, Jaguars 30-14.
Panthers at Saints, Saints 30-21.

Update:
Chiefs were favored by 9, so double wrong there.
Rams were favored by 6, so double wrong there.
Jaguars were favored by 9, so wrong against the spread.
Saints were favored by 7, tbd.
Lines taken from The Ringer
Previous years:
2017: 9-2 picking winners, 6-5 against the spread
2016: 7-4, 9-2
2015: 8-3, 4-7
2014: 6-5, 4-5-2
2013: 4-6, 3-6-1
2012: 7-4, 5-6
2011: 7-4, 6-5
2010: 5-6, 4-7
2009: 7-4, 6-4-1
2008: 6-5, 3-7-1
2007: 7-4, 6-5
2006: 5-6, 5-6
2005: 8-3, 7-4
2004: 5-6, 2-8-1
2003: 8-3, 4-7
Totals: 99-65 picking winners (60.4%), 74-84-6 against the spread (46.8%).

Tuesday, October 17, 2017

NBA Predictions 2017-18

Take with the usual grain of salt. Actually, I don’t feel like I have much feel for this season, so take this with a lot of grains of salt. Over/Unders from Odds Shark.

Boston Celtics - Wins 55, O/U 55.5, Over Odds 120, Under Odds -150
Cleveland Cavaliers - Wins 49, O/U 53.5, Over Odds -145, Under Odds 115
Toronto Raptors - Wins 47, O/U 48.5, Over Odds -125, Under Odds -105
Washington Wizards - Wins 47, O/U 48, Over Odds -125, Under Odds -105
Atlanta Hawks - Wins 22, O/U 25.5, Over Odds -125, Under Odds -105
Milwaukee Bucks - Wins 45, O/U 47.5, Over Odds -105, Under Odds -125
Indiana Pacers - Wins 30, O/U 31.5, Over Odds -105, Under Odds -125
Chicago Bulls - Wins 20, O/U 22, Over Odds -115, Under Odds -115
Miami Heat - Wins 43, O/U 43.5, Over Odds -125, Under Odds -105
Detroit Pistons - Wins 38, O/U 38.5, Over Odds -115, Under Odds -115
Charlotte Hornets - Wins 40, O/U 42.5, Over Odds -130, Under Odds Even
New York Knicks - Wins 31, O/U 30.5, Over Odds 120, Under Odds -150
Orlando Magic - Wins 29, O/U 33.5, Over Odds -105, Under Odds -125
Philadelphia 76ers - Wins 41, O/U 41.5, Over Odds 145, Under Odds -175
Brooklyn Nets - Wins 30, O/U 27.5, Over Odds -115, Under Odds -115
Golden State Warriors - Wins 65, O/U 67.5, Over Odds -125, Under Odds -105
San Antonio Spurs - Wins 56, O/U 54.5, Over Odds -125, Under Odds -105
Houston Rockets - Wins 56, O/U 55.5, Over Odds -130, Under Odds Even
Los Angeles Clippers - Wins 43, O/U 43.5, Over Odds -125, Under Odds -105
Utah Jazz - Wins 42, O/U 41, Over Odds -130, Under Odds Even
Oklahoma City Thunder - Wins 57, O/U 50.5, Over Odds -200, Under Odds 160
Memphis Grizzlies - Wins 37, O/U 37.5, Over Odds -115, Under Odds -115
Portland Trail Blazers - Wins 41, O/U 42.5, Over Odds -125, Under Odds -105
Denver Nuggets - Wins 45, O/U 45.5, Over Odds -115, Under Odds -115
New Orleans Pelicans - Wins 41, O/U 39.5, Over Odds -115, Under Odds -115
Dallas Mavericks - Wins 34, O/U 35.5, Over Odds -115, Under Odds -115
Sacramento Kings - Wins 33, O/U 27.5, Over Odds -125, Under Odds -105
Minnesota Timberwolves - Wins 48, O/U 48.5, Over Odds -115, Under Odds -115
Los Angeles Lakers - Wins 35, O/U 33.5, Over Odds -125, Under Odds -105
Phoenix Suns - Wins 30, O/U 29, Over Odds -105, Under Odds -125

NBA Finals: Again the obvious one, GSW over the Cavs. Don't sleep on Boston, though.
Favorite Overs: Brooklyn Nets and LA Lakers (yuck)
Favorite Under: Cleveland

Review of record: 3-3 last year, bringing top picks record to 19-9.

Labels: ,

Thursday, September 07, 2017

NFL Predictions 2017

Here are my NFL team win predictions, with Vegas over/under in parenthesis (via footballlocks).

New England Patriots: 13-3 (12.5)
Atlanta Falcons: 9-7 (9.5)
Dallas Cowboys: 8-8 (9)
Kansas City Chiefs: 10-6 (9)
Pittsburgh Steelers: 10-6 (10.5)
Seattle Seahawks: 11-5 (10.5)
Arizona Cardinals: 9-7 (8.5)
Green Bay Packers: 10-6 (10.5)
Denver Broncos: 10-6 (8)
Philadelphia Eagles: 10-6 (8.5)
Oakland Raiders: 11-5 (9.5)
New York Giants: 9-7 (9)
Baltimore Ravens: 7-9 (8.5)
Buffalo Bills: 6-10 (6.5)
Minnesota Vikings: 9-7 (8.5)
Indianapolis Colts: 6-10 (7.5)
New Orleans Saints: 8-8 (8)
Washington Redskins: 7-9 (7.5)
Cincinnati Bengals: 9-7 (8.5)
Tennessee Titans: 8-8 (9)
Detroit Lions: 7-9 (7.5)
Los Angeles Chargers: 8-8 (7.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 9-7 (8.5)
Miami Dolphins: 8-8 (7.5)
Carolina Panthers: 9-7 (9)
Houston Texans: 8-8 (8.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars: 6-10 (6.5)
Chicago Bears: 5-11 (5.5)
New York Jets: 3-13 (3.5)
Los Angeles Rams: 5-11 (5.5)
San Francisco 49ers: 4-12 (5)
Cleveland Browns: 4-12 (4.5)

Division winners: New England, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Oakland, Philadelphia, Green Bay, Carolina, Seattle. Wild cards: Cincinnati, Kansas City, Minnesota, Arizona.
Superbowl: New England over Green Bay

Favorite overs: Oakland
Favorite under: none

Review of prior years: Last year went 3-1, bringing top picks record to 14-6-1.

Standard disclaimers apply

Labels: ,

Thursday, June 01, 2017

2017 NBA Finals

Got both conference finals right, for what it’s worth. I know I’m a little late posting this, but my view hasn’t changed.

Review of Round 1
Winners I got right: Celtics, Cavaliers, Raptors, Wizards, Warriors, Spurs, Rockets. Wrong on the Clippers. So 7-1.
Winners I got right with the right number of games: Warriors.

Review of Round 2
Winners I got right: Warriors, Cavaliers. Wrong on the Rockets and Wizards.

Review of Round 3
Winners I got right: Warriors, Cavaliers. Plus the right number of games for the Cavs.

NBA Finals
Golden State Warriors with home-court against the Cleveland Cavaliers. Cleveland is the champ, and they have Bron, so they have a chance. Plus Mike Brown is the opposing coach. However, GSW is too good, their D is way way better than Cleveland’s. I’m hoping for 7, but The Warriors get it done in 5. Warriors 4-1.

Sunday, May 14, 2017

NBA Playoffs 2016, Round 3

The Western Conference will start up before the East wraps, but again it really doesn’t matter much.

Review of Round 1Winners I got right: Celtics, Cavaliers, Raptors, Wizards, Warriors, Spurs, Rockets. Wrong on the Clippers. So 7-1.
Winners I got right with the right number of games: Warriors.

Review of Round 2
Winners I got right: Warriors, Cavaliers. Potentially the Wizards. Wrong on the Rockets.

Round 3
#1 Boston Celtics vs. #2 Cleveland Cavaliers, or #2 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. #4 Washington Wizards. Either way, Cavs 4-1. LeBron is too good.
#1 Golden State Warriors vs. #2 San Antonio Spurs. Warriors 4-1. GSW is too good.

NBA Finals
Warriors 4, Cavaliers 1. LBJ gives them a chance, but don't expect a letdown from the dubs this time around.

Saturday, April 29, 2017

NBA Playoffs 2016, Round 2

The Eastern Conference will start up before the West wraps, but it really doesn’t matter much. At most I might switch from 5 to 4 games based on what happens in the Jazz-Clips game 7.

Review of Round 1
Winners I got right: Celtics, Cavaliers, Raptors, Wizards, Warriors, Spurs, Rockets. TBD on Clippers. Potentially 8-0.
Winners and the number of games I got right: Warriors. TBD on Clips.

Round 2
Eastern Conference
#1 Boston Celtics vs. #4 Washington Wizards. I want to be wrong on this, but I don’t think the Celtics have the extra gear they need to go far in the playoffs. Wizards 4-2.
#2 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. #3 Toronto Raptors. Still think the Raps have the best chance in the East of taking down the Cavs, but they definitely did not fill me with confidence in the first round. Cavaliers 4-2.
Western Conference
#1 Golden State Warriors vs. #4 LA Clippers or #5 Utah Jazz. Could easily be a sweep, but I think the lower seed pulls out one at home. Warriors 4-1.
#2 San Antonio Spurs vs. #3 Houston Rockets. The hardest call for me, but I feel like the Spurs are vulnerable and the Rockets offense will light them up. Rockets 4-2.

Round 3
Cavs 4, Wizards 1.
Warriors 4, Rockets 1.

NBA Finals
Warriors 4, Cavaliers 2.