Implied Dissent

Friday, January 20, 2017

NFL Playoffs 2016-17, Round 2



Round 1
4-0 picking winners, 1-3 against the spread.

Round 2
2-2 picking winners, 2-2 against the spread. So totals 6-2, and 3-5.

Round 3
Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons, Falcons favored by 5. Falcons 35-28.
Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots, Patriots favored by 6. Patriots 27-17.

Friday, January 13, 2017

NFL Playoffs 2016-17, Round 2

Round 1
4-0 picking winners, 1-3 against the spread.

Round 2
Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons, Falcons favored by 4.5. Seahawks 27-20.
Houston Texans at New England Patriots, Patriots favored by 16. Patriots 27-10.
Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys, Cowboys favored by 5. Cowboys 27-21.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs, Chiefs favored by 1. Chiefs 24-19.

Saturday, January 07, 2017

NFL Playoffs 2016-17, Round 1



First a review of previous years to make sure you know not to take this to the bank:

2016: 7-4 picking winners, 9-2 against the spread
2015: 8-3, 4-7
2014: 6-5, 4-5-2
2013: 4-6, 3-6-1
2012: 7-4, 5-6
2011: 7-4, 6-5
2010: 5-6, 4-7
2009: 7-4, 6-4-1
2008: 6-5, 3-7-1
2007: 7-4, 6-5
2006: 5-6, 5-6
2005: 8-3, 7-4
2004: 5-6, 2-8-1
2003: 8-3, 4-7

Totals: 90-63 picking winners (58.8%), 68-79-6 against the spread (46.3%). Going to try the same simple, perhaps dumb, system I used last year. Lines taken from http://www.footballlocks.com/nfl_lines.shtml.

Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans, Houston favored by 4. Texans 18-17.
Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks, Seattle favored by 8. Seahawks 26-17.
Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers, Pittsburgh favored by 10.5. Steelers 28-18.
NY Giants at Green Bay Packers, Green Bay favored by 5. Packers 25-21.

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Monday, October 24, 2016

NBA Predictions 2016-17

Take with the usual grain of salt. Over/Unders from Odds Shark.

Cleveland Cavaliers 59-23 (56.5)
Toronto Raptors 50-32 (50.5)
Miami Heat 33-49 (34.5)
Atlanta Hawks 42-40 (43.5)
Boston Celtics 53-29 (52.5)
Charlotte Hornets 41-41 (42.5)
Indiana Pacers 44-38 (44.5)
Detroit Pistons 44-38 (44.5)
Chicago Bulls 36-46 (38.5)
Washington Wizards  41-41 (42.5)
Orlando Magic  40-42 (37.5)
Milwaukee Bucks  36-46 (34.5)
New York Knicks  41-41 (38.5)
Brooklyn Nets  21-61 (20.5)
Philadelphia 76ers  23-59 (24.5)
Golden State Warriors 69-13 (66.5)
San Antonio Spurs 60-22 (58.5)
Oklahoma City Thunder 45-37 (43.5)
Los Angeles Clippers 50-32 (53.5)
Portland Trail Blazers 43-39 (45.5)
Dallas Mavericks 37-45 (38.5)
Memphis Grizzlies 33-49 (42.5)
Houston Rockets 41-41 (44)
Utah Jazz 47-35 (49)
Sacramento Kings  35-47 (34)
Denver Nuggets  35-47 (37)
New Orleans Pelicans  40-42 (37)
Minnesota Timberwolves  46-36 (40.5)
Phoenix Suns  23-59 (30)
Los Angeles Lakers  22-60 (24.5)

NBA Finals: The obvious matchup, Warriors over Cavaliers.
Favorite Overs: Golden State Warriors, Minnesota Timberwolves, Orlando Magic
Favorite Unders: Los Angeles Clippers, Memphis Grizzlies, Phoenix Suns

Review of record: 3-1 last year, bringing top picks record to 15-6. Nice. Overall last year went 10-20, bringing total record to 61-59.

Thursday, September 08, 2016

NFL Predictions 2016

Here are my NFL team win predictions, with Vegas over/under in parenthesis (via footballlocks).

Carolina Panthers: 12-4 (10.5)
New England Patriots: 12-4 (10.5)
Cincinnati Bengals: 11-5 (9.5)
Kansas City Chiefs: 11-5 (9.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers: 11-5 (10.5)
Denver Broncos: 11-5 (9.5)
Arizona Cardinals: 10-6 (9.5)
Seattle Seahawks: 10-6 (10.5)
Green Bay Packers: 10-6 (11)
New York Jets: 9-7 (7.5)
Minnesota Vikings: 9-7 (8.5)
Houston Texans: 9-7 (8.5)
Oakland Raiders: 9-7 (8.5)
Indianapolis Colts: 9-7 (9)
Buffalo Bills: 8-8 (8)
Washington Redskins: 8-8 (7.5)
Atlanta Falcons: 8-8 (7.5)
New York Giants: 8-8 (8)
Jacksonville Jaguars: 8-8 (7.5)
Baltimore Ravens: 7-9 (8.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 7-9 (7.5)
Dallas Cowboys: 7-9 (8)
Detroit Lions: 6-10 (7)
Chicago Bears: 6-10 (7.5)
New Orleans Saints: 6-10 (7.5)
Miami Dolphins: 6-10 (7)
San Diego Chargers: 6-10 (7.5)
LA Rams: 5-11 (7.5)
Philadelphia Eagles: 5-11 (6.5)
Tennessee Titans: 5-11 (5.5)
San Francisco 49ers: 4-12 (5.5)
Cleveland Browns: 3-13 (4.5)

Division winners: New England, Cincinnati, Houston, Kansas City; Washington, Green Bay, Carolina, Arizona. Wild cards: Pittsburgh, Denver; Minnesota, Seattle.
Superbowl: A two years ago rematch, New England over Seattle.

Favorite overs: New England, Kansas City, Cincinnati
Favorite under: LA

Standard disclaimers apply

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Thursday, June 02, 2016

NBA 2016 Finals

Got both conference finals winners right. So 11-3 picking series winners so far.

NBA Finals

Golden State Warriors with home-court against the Cleveland Cavaliers. A much better matchup this year than last, and wouldn't be shocked by either team winning. However, the Warriors are a bit better 2-3, and 4-12, and it's arguable whether Bron or Curry is better (no question on MVP, of course, but that's a regular season award). Add in home-court, and I'm going West. Warriors 4-3, for the repeat.

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Monday, May 16, 2016

NBA Playoffs 2016, Round 3

Round 3
Eastern Conference
#1 Cleveland Cavaliers against Toronto Raptors. Easy peasy. Cavs 4-1.
Western Conference
#1 Golden State Warriors vs. #3 Oklahoma City Thunder. Another great series in the West. Don’t sleep on OKC. Warriors 4-3.

NBA Finals
Golden State Warriors with home-court over the Cleveland Cavaliers. Warriors 4-3.

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Monday, May 02, 2016

NBA Playoffs 2016, Round 2 (part 2)

Now to fill in the TBDs.
#2 Toronto Raptors vs. #3 Miami Heat. Haven’t watched a lick of either team this postseason. Heat 4-2.
Still have them losing to Cleveland 4-1.

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Saturday, April 30, 2016

NBA Playoffs 2016, Round 2 (part 1)

The Western Conference will start up before the East wraps, so will post what I can now. Still chalk.

Round 2
Eastern Conference
#1 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. #4 Atlanta Hawks. The Hawks are pretty good, the Cavs are excellent. Cavs 4-1.
TBD vs. TBD
Western Conference
#1 Golden State Warriors vs. #5 Portland Trail Blazers. With Curry it’d be a sweep. With him out, probably they drop 1. Warriors 4-1.
#2 San Antonio Spurs vs. #3 Oklahoma City Thunder. San Antonio is the better team, but I like how OKC matches up. It’ll be a close one. San Antonio 4-3.

Round 3
Eastern Conference
#1 Cleveland Cavaliers against TBD. Cavs 4-1.
Western Conference
#1 Golden State Warriors vs. #2 San Antonio Spurs. Warriors 4-3.

NBA Finals
Golden State Warriors with home-court over the Cleveland Cavaliers. Warriors 4-3.

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Saturday, April 16, 2016

NBA Playoffs 2016

I wish I had a contrarian take on this year’s playoffs, but I think it’ll be largely chalk. As usual, I’ll give my predictions for all 4 rounds now, but you should only take my current round predictions even half seriously.

Round 1
Eastern Conference
#1 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. #8 Detroit Pistons. The Cavs are vulnerable, but I don’t see it against Detroit. Cavs 4-1.
#2 Toronto Raptors vs. #7 Indiana Pacers. Indy finished the season strong, but that was largely schedule-based. Love PG, but the Raps are better. Raptors 4-1.
#3 Miami Heat vs. Charlotte Hornets. I continue to doubt the Hornets a bit, though they are clearly much better than I gave them credit for (who knew Marvin Williams would become good?). Heat 4-3.
#4 Atlanta Hawks vs. Boston Celtics. Should be a great series. I’m a bit biased, but I have to admit the Hawks have largely owned the C’s. Hawks 4-3. Go Celts.
Western Conference
#1 Golden State Warriors vs. #8 Houston Rockets. Only question is if it’s a sweep. Warriors 4-0.
#2 San Antonio Spurs vs. #7 Memphis Grizzlies. Spurs 4-0.
#3 Oklahoma Thunder vs. #6 Dallas Mavericks. Carlisle is a much better coach, but I don’t see it. Thunder 4-1.
#4 Los Angeles Clippers vs. #5 Portland Trail Blazers. Will be interesting to see how Blake plays. Clips 4-3.

Round 2
Eastern Conference
#1 Cavaliers vs. #4 Hawks. Cavs 4-1.
#2 Raptors vs. #3 Heat. Raps 4-3.
Western Conference
#1 Warriors vs. #4 Clippers. Warriors 4-1.
#2 Spurs vs. #3 Thunder. Either 5 or 7….I’ll go with Spurs 4-1.

Round 3
Eastern Conference
#1 Cavs vs. #2 Raps. Cavs 4-3.
Western Conference
#1 Warriors vs. #2 Spurs. Been saying for a while whoever had home-court would win this. Warriors 4-3.

NBA Finals
Warriors with home-court against the Cavs. Warriors 4-1.

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Saturday, February 06, 2016

Superbowl 2016

Round 1
2-2 picking winners, 4-0 against the spread.

Round 2
4-0 picking winners, 3-1 against the spread.

Round 3
1-1 picking winners, 2-0 against the spread. So, overall I’m 7-3 and 9-1. I don’t understand it either, other than luck. However, I’m definitely sticking with my system for now (even with the weird score it’s spitting out). 

Superbowl
Denver Broncos and Carolina Panthers, Panthers favored by 5.5. Great defense against an excellent offense usually wins. However, the other side is an excellent defense against a middling offense, which seems a bigger difference. Go with Cam. Panthers 25-19.

Saturday, January 23, 2016

NFL Playoffs 2015-16, Round 3

Round 1
2-2 picking winners, 4-0 against the spread.

Round 2
4-0 picking winners, 3-1 against the spread. Overall 6-2 and 7-1. I’m more shocked than you are.

Round 3
New England Patriots at Denver Broncos, Patriots favored by 3. I’m uncomfortable with how almost all pundits are writing off the Broncos. That’s a stout defense, so don’t write them off. Plus my simple and really stupid method of picking has been working, so I’m going to stick with it. Patriots 22-21.

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers, Panthers favored by 3. Weather is a wild card, but I think it favors the cats. Panthers 29-24.