Implied Dissent

Tuesday, May 14, 2019

NBA Playoffs 2019 III

Round 1
All 8 series correct, with 2 in the right number of games.

Round 2
All 4 of the series correct, 2 in the right number of games.

Round 3
#1 Milwaukee Bucks vs. #2 Toronto Raptors. Bucks are too good. Bucks 4-1.
#1 Golden State Warriors vs. #3 Portland Trailblazers. Durant being out opens the door, but I think the champs pull it out. Warriors 4-3.

Finals
Bucks 4, Warriors 1. Giannis, shooters, and defense. And either no Durant or limited Durant.

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Saturday, April 27, 2019

NBA Playoffs 2019 II

Round 1
7 or 8 of the series correct, pending Denver winning tonight. 1 or 2 of those in the right number of games (again pending Denver). I think I was right to say not to overlook Orlando, but wrong to think Utah could do well against Houston/in the playoffs.

Round 2
Eastern Conference
#1 Milwaukee Bucks vs. #4 Boston Celtics. The C’s look better, but not enough. I’m upgrading them to 30% chance of winning the series. Bucks 4-1 (but closer than that).
#2 Toronto Raptors vs. #3 Philadelphia 76ers. I could easily see it going strongly one way or the other, but I think Toronto got their act together more. Raptors 4-3.
Western Conference
#1 Golden State Warriors vs. #4 Houston Rockets. The question is if GSW is slipping, or if they just slipped a bit against the Clips. I’m sticking with the 3 out of 4 champs. Warriors 4-3. One of these will be the West champs.
#2 Denver Nuggets vs. #3 Portland Trailblazers, or #3 Portland Trailblazers vs. #7 San Antonio Spurs. Portland has handled the loss of Nurkic better than I expected, though helped by OKC not playing well. This will be the worst series of round 2, by quality of play. Trailblazers 4-2 over (probably) Denver, or 4-1 over San Antonio.

Round 3
#1 Milwaukee Bucks vs. #2 Toronto Raptors. Bucks are too good. Bucks 4-1.
#1 Golden State Warriors vs. #3 Portland Trailblazers. Warriors 4-1.

Finals
Bucks 4, Warriors 3. Giannis, shooters, and defense.

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Saturday, April 13, 2019

NBA Playoffs 2019

Very chalky, but will try to identify where upsets might come.

Round 1
Eastern Conference
#1 Milwaukee Bucks vs. #8 Detroit Pistons. Maybe the Pistons get 1, probably not. Bucks 4-0.
#2 Toronto Raptors vs. #7 Orlando Magic. People are dismissing the Magic; they shouldn’t. This is my series with the greatest combination of no one expecting it and the chance of an upset. Raptors 4-3.
#3 Philadelphia 76ers vs. #6 Brooklyn Nets. I’m not buying the D’Angelo Russell hype train this year (he’s better, not close to All-Star level), but this is almost a perfect opponent for him. Philly could be champs because of their top 5’s firepower, or could go out early due to the lack of depth and how teams can adjust their defense much more in the playoffs for the matchup. 76ers 4-3.
#4 Boston Celtics vs. #5 Indiana Pacers. I want to believe the Celtics have figured it out, that Gordo is >90% back, that the Smart injury will help make the rotations better. TBD. Meanwhile the Pacers look a lot like the 2018 Celtics. Celtics 4-3.
Western Conference
#1 Golden State Warriors vs. #8 Los Angeles Clippers. The Warriors get sloppy once. Warriors 4-1.
#2 Denver Nuggets vs. #7 San Antonio Spurs. Experience vs. talent. I think the talent gap is too big, but don’t be shocked. Nuggets 4-3.
#3 Portland Trailblazers vs. #6 Oklahoma City Thunder. The Thunder looked like a really contender for a while, but I don’t see it anymore. Unfortunately, PTB lost its big guy, so this will be competitive. Trailblazers 4-3.
#4 Houston Rockets vs. #5 Utah Jazz. Probably the best round 1 series. Key will be if Gobert can defend in space, and if someone else steps up for Utah offensively. Rockets 4-3.

Round 2
Bucks 4, Celtics 1. If the Celtics really have it together (23% chance), they win in a tough 6 or 7.
Raptors 4, 76ers 1. Could see Lowry sinking things, though.
Warriors 4, Rockets 3. Rockets will probably be better than last year, but Warriors won’t take them lightly.
Nuggets 4, Trailblazers 3. Eh.

Round 3
Bucks 4, Raptors 3. But not really this close, kinda like Bos-Atl in 2008.
Warriors 4, Nuggets 1. Would be very surprised if anyone but Warriors or Rockets wins the West.

Finals
Warriors 4, Bucks 3. Great series.

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Sunday, February 03, 2019

Superbowl 2019

Round 1
1-3 picking winners, 1-3 against the spread, 2-2 on Over/Unders.

Round 2
4-0, 3-1, 3-1.

Round 3
0-2, 0-2, 1-1. Happy to have been wrong.
So totals are 5-5, 4-6, 6-4. Bleh.

Superbowl
New England Patriots vs. Los Angeles Rams, Patriots favored by 2.5, O/U 56. It hasn't produced great results this year, but I'm sticking with my system. Rams 29-27 (call it 29-27.5 for O/U purposes). Go Patriots, one for the other thumb!

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Friday, January 18, 2019

NFL Playoffs 2018-19, Round 3

Last week went 4-0 picking winners, 3-1 against the spread, and 3-1 against the Over/Under. That brings this playoffs to 5-3, 4-4, and 5-3.

Round 3
Rams at Saints, Saints favored by 3.5, Over/Under 57. Saints 34-29.
Patriots at Chiefs, Chiefs favored by 3, O/U 56.5. Chiefs 33-28. Go Pats!

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Saturday, January 12, 2019

NFL Playoffs 2018-19, Round 2

Last week went 1-3 picking winners, 1-3 against the spread, and 2-2 against the Over/Under.

Round 2
Colts at Chiefs, Chiefs favored by 5, Over/Under 55.5. Chiefs 36-27.
Cowboys at Rams, Rams favored by 7, O/U 49, Rams 31-20.
Chargers at Patriots, Patriots favored by 4, O/U 48. Patriots 26-22 (call it 26.5-22 for spread purposes).
Eagles at Saints, Saints favored by 8, O/U 51.5. Saints 32-19.

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Saturday, January 05, 2019

NFL Playoffs 2018-19, Round 1

Keeping it simple.

Colts at Texans, Texans favored by 2, Over/Under 48.5. Texans 25-21.
Seahawks at Cowboys, Cowboys favored by 2.5, Over/Under 43.5. Cowboys 22-21.
Chargers at Ravens, Ravens favored by 2.5, Over/Under 42. Ravens 23-19 (call it 22.5-19 for OU purposes).
Eagles at Bears, Bears favored by 6.5, Over/Under 41.5. Bears 25-17.
Lines taken from ESPN.

Previous years:
2018: 6-5 picking winners, 4-6-1 against the spread
2017: 9-2, 6-5
2016: 7-4, 9-2
2015: 8-3, 4-7
2014: 6-5, 4-5-2
2013: 4-6, 3-6-1
2012: 7-4, 5-6
2011: 7-4, 6-5
2010: 5-6, 4-7
2009: 7-4, 6-4-1
2008: 6-5, 3-7-1
2007: 7-4, 6-5
2006: 5-6, 5-6
2005: 8-3, 7-4
2004: 5-6, 2-8-1
2003: 8-3, 4-7
Totals: 105-70 picking winners (61.1), 78-90-7 against the spread (46.4%).

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Tuesday, October 16, 2018

NBA Predictions 2018-19

Take with the usual grain of salt. Over/Unders from Odds Shark.
Boston Celtics 59-23 O/U 58.5
Toronto Raptors 57-25 O/U 55.5
Philadelphia 76ers 56-26 O/U 53.5
Milwaukee Bucks 54-28 O/U 48
Indiana Pacers 44-38 O/U 47.5
Washington Wizards 43-39 O/U 44.5
Cleveland Cavaliers 41-41 O/U 30.5
Miami Heat 41-41 O/U n/a
Detroit Pistons 39-43 O/U 38
Charlotte Hornets 39-43 O/U 36
New York Knicks 33-49 O/U 29.5
Brooklyn Nets 30-52 O/U 32
Orlando Magic 27-55 O/U 31
Atlanta Hawks 27-55 O/U 23.5
Chicago Bulls 26-56 O/U 29.5

Golden State Warriors 59-23 O/U 63.5
Houston Rockets 55-27 O/U 55.5
Utah Jazz 53-29 O/U 49.5
Los Angeles Lakers 52-30 O/U 48.5
Oklahoma City Thunder 45-37 O/U 48.5
New Orleans Pelicans 45-37 O/U 45.5
Minnesota Timberwolves 44-38 O/U n/a
Denver Nuggets 44-38 O/U 47.5
Portland Trail Blazers 42-40 O/U 42
San Antonio Spurs 41-41 O/U 44.5
Los Angeles Clippers 40-42 O/U 36.5
Dallas Mavericks 28-54 O/U 34.5
Memphis Grizzlies 23-59 O/U 33.5
Sacramento Kings 22-60 O/U 26
Phoenix Suns 21-61 O/U 29.5

NBA Finals: Warriors over Celtics. Toyed with Raptors being the ones to lose to GSW, but need to see it from Kawhi in general and Lowry in playoffs to go that far.
Favorite overs: Milwaukee, Utah, LA Lakers
Favorite unders: Oklahoma City, Orlando.

Review of record: 3-0 last year, bringing NBA top picks record to 22-9.

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Tuesday, September 18, 2018

Apropos of nothing

Some things are binary, some are not. What one person means by believe can be very different from what another does. One can understand why someone would wait many years to come forward with a true allegation, and also know that celebrity and politics sometimes bring out crazies and or false attacks. So take accusations seriously, and do what can be done to determine their truth. And if the result is any reasonable level of chance of their truth (seriousness also an important qualifier in some cases, though not necessarily today), don’t put the accused into a lifetime term to a super important job. It isn’t about a person (as unfair as that will sometimes be to some people), it’s about the country, and finding the best person we can for the job, given the uncertainties that always exist along multiple dimensions with any decision.

Wednesday, September 05, 2018

NFL Predictions 2018

Here are my NFL team win predictions, with Vegas over/under in parenthesis. That is followed by the odds for the over, then the odds for the under, then my interpretation of what those two odds mean is the implied likelihood of the team going over. (via https://www.oddsshark.com/nfl/nfl-over-under-win-totals).

AFC East
New England Patriots: 11-5 (11) Over -140 Under +110 Chance Over 55%
Buffalo Bills: 5-11 (6) Over +170 Under -210 Chance Over 35%
Miami Dolphins: 6-10 (6.5) Over -135 Under +105 Chance Over 54%
New York Jets: 6-10 (6) Over -105 Under -125 Chance Over 48%
AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers: 8-8 (10.5) Over -105 Under -125 Chance Over 48%
Baltimore Ravens: 7-9 (8) Over -180 Under +150 Chance Over 62%
Cincinnati Bengals: 7-9 (6.5) Over -200 Under +160 Chance Over 64%
Cleveland Browns: 5-11 (5.5) Over -160 Under +130 Chance Over 59%
AFC South
Jacksonville Jaguars: 10-6 (9) Over -135 Under +105 Chance Over 54%
Tennessee Titans: 8-8 (8) Over -110 Under -120 Chance Over 49%
Houston Texans: 9-7 (8.5) Over -150 Under +120 Chance Over 57%
Indianapolis Colts: 7-9 (6.5) Over -190 Under +155 Chance Over 63%
AFC West
Kansas City Chiefs: 9-7 (8.5) Over -115 Under -115 Chance Over 50%
Los Angeles Chargers: 9-7 (9.5) Over -125 Under -105 Chance Over 52%
Oakland Raiders: 5-11 (7.5) Over +110 Under -140 Chance Over 45%
Denver Broncos: 8-8 (7) Over -160 Under +130 Chance Over 59%
NFC East
Philadelphia Eagles: 11-5 (10) Over -125 Under -105 Chance Over 52%
Dallas Cowboys: 8-8 (8.5) Over +120 Under -150 Chance Over 43%
Washington Redskins: 7-9 (7) Over -135 Under +105 Chance Over 54%
New York Giants: 6-10 (7) Over -145 Under +115 Chance Over 56%
NFC North
Minnesota Vikings: 11-5 (10) Over -160 Under +130 Chance Over 59%
Detroit Lions: 7-9 (7.5) Over -115 Under -115 Chance Over 50%
Green Bay Packers: 10-6 (10) Over -130 Under +100 Chance Over 53%
Chicago Bears: 9-7 (6.5) Over -140 Under +110 Chance Over 55%
NFC South
New Orleans Saints: 10-6 (9.5) Over -145 Under +115 Chance Over 56%
Carolina Panthers: 9-7 (9) Over +150 Under -180 Chance Over 38%
Atlanta Falcons: 10-6 (9) Over -160 Under +130 Chance Over 59%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 6-10 (6.5) Over +135 Under -165 Chance Over 40%
NFC West
Los Angeles Rams: 12-4 (10) Over -140 Under +110 Chance Over 55%
Seattle Seahawks: 6-10 (8) Over +140 Under -170 Chance Over 39%
Arizona Cardinals: 6-10 (5.5) Over -200 Under +170 Chance Over 65%
San Francisco 49ers: 8-8 (8.5) Over +140 Under -170 Chance Over 39%

AFC division winners: New England (#1 seed), Jacksonville (#2 seed), LA Chargers (#3 seed), Pittsburgh (#4 seed). Wild cards: Houston and Kansas City.

NFC division winners: LA Rams (#1 seed), Philadelphia (#2 seed), Minnesota (#3 seed), Atlanta (#4 seed). Wild cards: Green Bay and New Orleans.

Superbowl: New England over LA. Got to keep going with the Pats until they’re done.

Favorite overs: Bears, Rams
Favorite unders: Steelers, Seahawks, Raiders

Review of prior years: Last year 0-1, bringing NFL top picks record to 14-7-1.

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Sunday, February 04, 2018

Superbowl 2018

Round 1
2-2 picking winners, 0-4 against the spread.

Round 2
3-1 picking winners, 3-0-1 against the spread.

Round 3
1-1 picking winners, 1-1 against the spread. So totals 6-4, 4-5-1.

Super Bowl
New England Patriots vs. Philadelphia Eagles, Patriots favored by 5.5. So my system predicts 24-24; Hmm. Foles has been great, but still a bit skeptical of him, so knocking 4 points off for that. Eagles D is excellent, but there’s an obvious way for Pats to overcome it, so bumping them up 3 points for that. Patriots 27-20.

Saturday, January 20, 2018

NFL Playoffs 2017-18, Round 3

That was much better. To do an actual review:

Round 1
2-2 picking winners, 0-4 against the spread.

Round 2
3-1 picking winners, 3-0-1 against the spread. So totals 5-3, 3-4-1.

Round 3
Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots, Patriots favored by 7.5. Don't underestimate the Jags' D and running game. Pats 23-20.
Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles, Vikings favored by 3. The base system says Eagles 24-20, I'm Foles-adjusting that to Vikings 20-17. Call it 20.5-17 for picking purposes.