Implied Dissent

Sunday, January 20, 2013

NFL Playoffs 2012-13, Round 3

Ouch. 0-4 against the spread last weekend, 1-3 picking winners. Moving along....

San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons, 49ers favored by 4. I'm torn on this one. On the one hand I think people are reading too much into the great game SF had last week, and not giving enough weight to the Falcons taking that weight off of their shoulders. On the other hand it looks like it could be a bad matchup for Atlanta, as they're really bad against QB runs. Not sure if the Crabtree situation affects much. I do expect a fairly high scoring game. 49ers 30, Falcons 27.

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots, Patriots favored by 9. The Patriots are better, and of course are home. However, the Ravens match up well and always play them tough. Plus no Gronk. It'll be close. Patriots 27, Ravens 24.

Saturday, January 12, 2013

NFL Playoffs 2012-13, Round 2

First my overdue review of previous years:
2012: 7-4 picking winners, 5-6 against the spread
2011: 7-4, 6-5
2010: 5-6, 4-7
2009: 7-4, 6-4-1
2008: 6-5, 3-7-1
2007: 7-4, 6-5
2006: 5-6, 5-6
2005: 8-3, 7-4
2004: 5-6, 2-8-1
2003: 8-3, 4-7
Totals: 65-45 picking winners (59%), 48-59-3 against the spread (45%). So almost, but not quite, bad enough to use me as a negative indicator.

This year in Round 1 I went 2-1 picking winners and 1-2 against the spread. Onto Round 2.

Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos, Broncos favored by 9. The Ravens looked decent last week, and Peyton has a history of both great and atrocious playoff games. As such I expect the Broncos to either win a blowout or to lose; no close calls. I guess I'll go with the former. Broncos 34, Ravens 23.

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers, 49ers favored by 3. I'm going with the great QB going home for revenge over the young QB in his first playoff game. Packers 30, 49ers 27.

Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons, Falcons favored by 1. I want to see the Falcons and Ryan get the monkey off of their backs, but I won't be picking them in a playoff game until I see it happen once. Seahawks 23, Falcons 20.

Houston Texans at New England Patriots, Patriots favored by 10. The Patriots should win, but that's too big a line, especially given the history of playoff rematches following a regular season blowout. Patriots 30, Texans 23.

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Saturday, January 05, 2013

NFL Playoffs 2012-13

Oops, neglected to put this up before the first game. Was leaning towards the Bengals to win and thus cover, but it's irrelevant now. Will review previous years shortly.

Vikings at Packers, Packers favored by 7.5. Peterson gives the Vikes a shot, but I don't see it happening. Green Bay is better, home, and out for revenge for the loss last week in Minny. Green Bay 31, Minnesota 20.

Colts at Ravens, Ravens favored by 7. The Ravens aren't playing great, but the Colts aren't nearly as good their record (lots of close wins, lots of bad/poor opponents). However, 7 points seems steep. Baltimore 24, Indianapolis 17 (call it 17.5 for gambling purposes).

Seahawks at Redskins, Seahawks favored by 3. Seattle is a great home team, and just a solid road team. I like the Redskins to win it outright. Washington 23, Seattle 21.

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