Implied Dissent

Sunday, January 19, 2014

NFL Playoffs 2013-14, Round 3

Better last week, though not good enough. 3-1 picking winners, 2-2 against the spread, so so far I’m 4-4 and 2-4-2.

Round 3
New England Patriots at Denver Broncos, Broncos favored by 5.5. If the Broncos make it shootout, they will win. However, the Pats are much better against the pass than the run, and their running games has become really good. So I expect both teams to run it quite a lot. So it will go under, and Pats pull it out. Patriots 28, Broncos 27.

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks, Seahawks favored by 3.5. I like SF and think they’re right up there with all these teams. Given that defense, it wouldn’t shock me at all if they win it all. However, maybe it’s an illusion, but Seattle seems to matchup really well with them, and are a great home team. Expect a slugfest. A defensive TD (or close to it) could determine this one. Seahawks 19, 49ers 13.

Saturday, January 11, 2014

NFL Playoffs 2013-14, Round 2

Well that wasn't good. Good to watch, but not good for my picks. 1-3 picking winners, 0-2-2 against the spread.

Round 2
New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks, Seattle favored by 7.5. The Saints answered some questions last week, but I still only half trust them on the road. In today's rain, against a great pass defense I don't expect them to be able to score a lot, while Seattle's run game should be quite good. Seahawks 27, Saints 17.

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots, New England favored by 7. The Colts looked awful in the 1H of last week, great in the 2H. Don't read too much into either one, they're a somewhat above average team. The Pats have some issues, but were never blown out, and were perfect at home. Also, another game in the weather where the road team is used to playing indoors. Then again, almost all of the their games were super close, expect another close one. Patriots 27, Colts 21.

San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers, SF favored by 1. The 49ers are looking good, I definitely give them a real shot at winning it all this year. I also really like the Panthers' defense. Newton still has a ways to go, but this could be when it happens. Also, SF is a West Coast team playing at 1pm on the East Coast, that probably counts for something. Panthers 20, 49ers 17.

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos, Denver favored by 9.5. Denver has to be the favorite to win the SB. However, given Manning's history, and that San Diego did the best job of anyone holding down the Denver offense, and Rivers, this will be close, and definitely could go either way. Broncos 27, Chargers 21.

Saturday, January 04, 2014

NFL Playoffs 2013-14

First a review of previous years:
2013: 4-6 picking winners, 3-6-1 against the spread
2012: 7-4, 5-6
2011: 7-4, 6-5
2010: 5-6, 4-7
2009: 7-4, 6-4-1
2008: 6-5, 3-7-1
2007: 7-4, 6-5
2006: 5-6, 5-6
2005: 8-3, 7-4
2004: 5-6, 2-8-1
2003: 8-3, 4-7
Totals: 69-51 picking winners (57.5%), 51-65-4 against the spread (44%). So almost, but not quite, bad enough to use me as a negative indicator.

Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts, Colts favored by 1. Neither team is great, but the Colts are showing up for their tough opponents, while the Chiefs have yet to beat a good team (Philly doesn't count, based on how they were playing then). Colts 26, Chiefs 17.

New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles, Eagles favored by 2.5. The Saints are just an okay road team, less than that outdoors in the playoffs. The Eagles recent run has included some cupcakes, but still is very encouraging. Eagles 34, Saints 27.

San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals, Bengals favored by 7. San Diego's trouble beating the Chiefs' second string last week is concerning, but they have gotten better as the season has gone along. However, the Bengals are a really good home team, and I think are better on both lines; I doubt they'll win a roadie, but this week should work out for them. Bengals 27, Chargers 20 (call it 19.5 for gambling purposes).

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers, 49ers favored by 3. It's hard to know what to make of the Packers. I generally like to look at how a team has done going into the playoffs, but only getting (a rusty) Aaron Rodgers back a week ago complicates that. I think he'll be close to himself this week, and so they should be very good, but this could be all over the place. Then you consider that they've had quite a bit of trouble dealing with Kaepernick, and that SF has the superior coach. And that SF closed the season very well. Then again, SF benefited from weak opponents in their big wins, while good teams play them very close. My gut says to go with Rodgers at home. Packers 27, 49ers 23.

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