Superbowl 2017

Round 1
4-0 picking winners, 1-3 against the spread.

Round 2
2-2 picking winners, 2-2 against the spread. So totals 6-2, and 3-5.

Round 3
2-0 picking winners, 2-0 against the spread. So totals are 8-2, and 5-5.

Superbowl
New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons, Patriots favored by 3. Over/under is 58.5. My math adds up to Patriots 31-24. Go Pats!

NFL Playoffs 2016-17, Round 1

First a review of previous years to make sure you know not to take this to the bank:

2016: 7-4 picking winners, 9-2 against the spread

2015: 8-3, 4-7

2014: 6-5, 4-5-2

2013: 4-6, 3-6-1

2012: 7-4, 5-6

2011: 7-4, 6-5

2010: 5-6, 4-7

2009: 7-4, 6-4-1

2008: 6-5, 3-7-1

2007: 7-4, 6-5

2006: 5-6, 5-6

2005: 8-3, 7-4

2004: 5-6, 2-8-1

2003: 8-3, 4-7

Totals: 90-63 picking winners (58.8%), 68-79-6 against the spread (46.3%). Going to try the same simple, perhaps dumb, system I used last year. Lines taken from http://www.footballlocks.com/nfl_lines.shtml.

Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans, Houston favored by 4. Texans 18-17.

Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks, Seattle favored by 8. Seahawks 26-17.

Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers, Pittsburgh favored by 10.5. Steelers 28-18.

NY Giants at Green Bay Packers, Green Bay favored by 5. Packers 25-21.

NFL Predictions 2016

Here are my NFL team win predictions, with Vegas over/under in parenthesis (via footballlocks).

Carolina Panthers: 12-4 (10.5)
New England Patriots: 12-4 (10.5)
Cincinnati Bengals: 11-5 (9.5)
Kansas City Chiefs: 11-5 (9.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers: 11-5 (10.5)
Denver Broncos: 11-5 (9.5)
Arizona Cardinals: 10-6 (9.5)
Seattle Seahawks: 10-6 (10.5)
Green Bay Packers: 10-6 (11)
New York Jets: 9-7 (7.5)
Minnesota Vikings: 9-7 (8.5)
Houston Texans: 9-7 (8.5)
Oakland Raiders: 9-7 (8.5)
Indianapolis Colts: 9-7 (9)
Buffalo Bills: 8-8 (8)
Washington Redskins: 8-8 (7.5)
Atlanta Falcons: 8-8 (7.5)
New York Giants: 8-8 (8)
Jacksonville Jaguars: 8-8 (7.5)
Baltimore Ravens: 7-9 (8.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 7-9 (7.5)
Dallas Cowboys: 7-9 (8)
Detroit Lions: 6-10 (7)
Chicago Bears: 6-10 (7.5)
New Orleans Saints: 6-10 (7.5)
Miami Dolphins: 6-10 (7)
San Diego Chargers: 6-10 (7.5)
LA Rams: 5-11 (7.5)
Philadelphia Eagles: 5-11 (6.5)
Tennessee Titans: 5-11 (5.5)
San Francisco 49ers: 4-12 (5.5)
Cleveland Browns: 3-13 (4.5)

Division winners: New England, Cincinnati, Houston, Kansas City; Washington, Green Bay, Carolina, Arizona. Wild cards: Pittsburgh, Denver; Minnesota, Seattle.
Superbowl: A two years ago rematch, New England over Seattle.

Favorite overs: New England, Kansas City, Cincinnati
Favorite under: LA

Review of prior years: Last year went 1-0, bringing top picks record to 11-5-1.

Standard disclaimers apply

NBA Playoffs 2016, Round 3

Round 3
Eastern Conference
#1 Cleveland Cavaliers against Toronto Raptors. Easy peasy. Cavs 4-1.
Western Conference
#1 Golden State Warriors vs. #3 Oklahoma City Thunder. Another great series in the West. Don’t sleep on OKC. Warriors 4-3.

NBA Finals
Golden State Warriors with home-court over the Cleveland Cavaliers. Warriors 4-3.

NBA Playoffs 2016, Round 2 (part 2)

Now to fill in the TBDs.
#2 Toronto Raptors vs. #3 Miami Heat. Haven’t watched a lick of either team this postseason. Heat 4-2.
Still have them losing to Cleveland 4-1.

NBA Playoffs 2016, Round 2 (part 1)

The Western Conference will start up before the East wraps, so will post what I can now. Still chalk.

Round 2
Eastern Conference
#1 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. #4 Atlanta Hawks. The Hawks are pretty good, the Cavs are excellent. Cavs 4-1.
TBD vs. TBD
Western Conference
#1 Golden State Warriors vs. #5 Portland Trail Blazers. With Curry it’d be a sweep. With him out, probably they drop 1. Warriors 4-1.
#2 San Antonio Spurs vs. #3 Oklahoma City Thunder. San Antonio is the better team, but I like how OKC matches up. It’ll be a close one. San Antonio 4-3.

Round 3
Eastern Conference
#1 Cleveland Cavaliers against TBD. Cavs 4-1.
Western Conference
#1 Golden State Warriors vs. #2 San Antonio Spurs. Warriors 4-3.

NBA Finals
Golden State Warriors with home-court over the Cleveland Cavaliers. Warriors 4-3.

NBA Playoffs 2016

I wish I had a contrarian take on this year’s playoffs, but I think it’ll be largely chalk. As usual, I’ll give my predictions for all 4 rounds now, but you should only take my current round predictions even half seriously.

Round 1
Eastern Conference
#1 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. #8 Detroit Pistons. The Cavs are vulnerable, but I don’t see it against Detroit. Cavs 4-1.
#2 Toronto Raptors vs. #7 Indiana Pacers. Indy finished the season strong, but that was largely schedule-based. Love PG, but the Raps are better. Raptors 4-1.
#3 Miami Heat vs. Charlotte Hornets. I continue to doubt the Hornets a bit, though they are clearly much better than I gave them credit for (who knew Marvin Williams would become good?). Heat 4-3.
#4 Atlanta Hawks vs. Boston Celtics. Should be a great series. I’m a bit biased, but I have to admit the Hawks have largely owned the C’s. Hawks 4-3. Go Celts.
Western Conference
#1 Golden State Warriors vs. #8 Houston Rockets. Only question is if it’s a sweep. Warriors 4-0.
#2 San Antonio Spurs vs. #7 Memphis Grizzlies. Spurs 4-0.
#3 Oklahoma Thunder vs. #6 Dallas Mavericks. Carlisle is a much better coach, but I don’t see it. Thunder 4-1.
#4 Los Angeles Clippers vs. #5 Portland Trail Blazers. Will be interesting to see how Blake plays. Clips 4-3.

Round 2
Eastern Conference
#1 Cavaliers vs. #4 Hawks. Cavs 4-1.
#2 Raptors vs. #3 Heat. Raps 4-3.
Western Conference
#1 Warriors vs. #4 Clippers. Warriors 4-1.
#2 Spurs vs. #3 Thunder. Either 5 or 7….I’ll go with Spurs 4-1.

Round 3
Eastern Conference
#1 Cavs vs. #2 Raps. Cavs 4-3.
Western Conference
#1 Warriors vs. #2 Spurs. Been saying for a while whoever had home-court would win this. Warriors 4-3.

NBA Finals
Warriors with home-court against the Cavs. Warriors 4-1.

NBA Predictions 2015-16

Take with the usual grain (or bucket) of salt.

Eastern Conference

Atlanta Hawks - 50-32 (50.5)

Cleveland Cavaliers - 53-29 (57.5)

Chicago Bulls - 51-31 (49.5)

Toronto Raptors - 43-39 (46.5)

Washington Wizards - 49-33 (45.5)

Milwaukee Bucks - 43-39 (44.5)

Boston Celtics - 48-34 (43.5)

Brooklyn Nets - 26-56 (28)

Indiana Pacers - 41-41 (40.5)

Miami Heat - 45-37 (47.5)

Charlotte Hornets - 24-58 (31.5)

Detroit Pistons - 33-49 (36)

Orlando Magic - 36-46 (34.5)

Philadelphia 76ers - 24-58 (20)

New York Knicks - 32-50 (28.5)

Western Conference

Golden State Warriors - 62-20 (59.5)

Houston Rockets - 55-27 (55.5)

Los Angeles Clippers - 54-28 (57)

Portland Trail Blazers - 29-53 (26.5)

Memphis Grizzlies - 48-34 (50.5)

San Antonio Spurs - 55-27 (57)

Dallas Mavericks - 41-41 (36.5)

New Orleans Pelicans - 47-35 (48)

Oklahoma City Thunder - 54-28 (57)

Phoenix Suns - 31-51 (36.5)

Utah Jazz - 39-43 (42.5)

Denver Nuggets - 30-52 (27)

Sacramento Kings - 36-46 (35)

Los Angeles Lakers - 27-55 (28.5)

Minnesota Timberwolves - 24-58 (27.5)

NBA Finals: Cavs over Warriors
Favorite Over: Celtics. Highly confident on this one; count it twice.
Favorite Unders: Cavaliers (resting guys), Hornets, Suns.

NFL predictions 2015

Will add the Vegas over/unders, but I'm pretty sure my only favorite call is Minnesota over. I know, only one is lame, but that's how it is. Standard disclaimers apply.

Super Bowl: Colts over Packers

(Vegas over/under in parenthesis, taken from Footballlocks.com)

New England Patriots 10-6 (11)

Buffalo Bills 7-9 (8.5)

Miami Dolphins 9-7 (9)

New York Jets 6-10 (7.5)

Pittsburgh Steelers 10-6 (8.5)

Cincinnati Bengals 9-7 (8.5)

Baltimore Ravens 9-7 (9.5)

Cleveland Browns 6-10 (6.5)

Indianapolis Colts 11-5 (10.5)

Houston Texans 8-8 (8.5)

Jacksonville Jaguars 6-10 (5.5)

Tennessee Titans 6-10 (5.5)

Denver Broncos 10-6 (10.5)

Kansas City Chiefs 8-8 (8.5)

San Diego Chargers 9-7 (8.5)

Oakland Raiders 6-10 (6)

Dallas Cowboys 10-6 (9.5)

Philadelphia Eagles 10-6 (9.5)

New York Giants 9-7 (8)

Washington Redskins 6-10 (6.5)

Green Bay Packers 11-5 (11)

Detroit Lions 7-9 (8.5)

Minnesota Vikings 10-6 (7.5)

Chicago Bears 5-11 (6.5)

Carolina Panthers 7-9 (8)

New Orleans Saints 7-9 (8.5)

Atlanta Falcons 8-8 (8.5)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6-10 (6)

Seattle Seahawks 10-6 (11)

Arizona Cardinals 7-9 (8.5)

San Francisco 49ers 6-10 (6.5)

St. Louis Rams 7-9 (8)

NBA 2015 Finals

Got both conference finals winners right. So 12-2 picking series winners so far. It's been kind of a chalky year. Anyway....

NBA Finals
Golden State Warriors with home-court against the Cleveland Cavaliers. It was impressive how the Cavs managed to dominate the Hawks even with all their injury problems. And I think the team 3 thru 12 is solid. Not great, but solid. If Irving was 100%, it would be interesting. If Love was playing, it'd be a tossup. As is, I'm split on whether to go 5 or 6. I feel like Bron can defend his hometurf, but also thinking that the Cavs just won't have enough wrinkles to their offense when going up against the best defense in the league to win twice, let alone 4 times. I'm hoping for a good series, but Warriors 75-80% likely to win it. Warriors 4-1.

NBA Playoffs 2015, Round 3

Posting this slightly late, but on my honor I knew what I wanted to say before the first game started, and haven't changed it at all.
In round 2 got all series winners correct.

Round 3
Eastern Conference
#1 Hawks against #2 Cavaliers. Would not be shocked if the deeper team pulled it off, especially with Irving looking gimpy. I'll stick with the best player on the planet, though. Cavaliers 4-2.

Western Conference
#1 Warriors against #2 Rockets. I give Houston a slim chance. The Warriors had their scare, and now are firing on all cylinders. The high volume of 3's on both sides increases the variance, and maybe Dwight can dominate on D, but I doubt it. Warriors 4-1.

NBA Finals
Warriors with home-court against the Cavaliers. Easy call. Too bad, would have been interesting with both teams healthy. Warriors 4-1.

NBA Playoffs 2015, Round 2

A mostly lackluster round 1, but Clips-Spurs was just as good as it was supposed to be. Disappointing to see the Love injury, which opens the door wider to Bulls and Hawks, but still see Cavs making the Finals. Being blown out, but making them. Got 6 series winners right, 2 in right number of games. We'll just pretend Mavs series didn't happen....
Onto Round 2.

Round 2
Eastern Conference
#1 Hawks against #5 Wizards. Playing Pierce at the 4 has helped the Wiz quite a bit, and the Hawks didn't look great against Brooklyn. However, it seems like Hawks were getting together by end of the series, and did win all of their home games. Not quite convinced by Wizards, would need to see it again. Hawks 4-3.
#2 Cavaliers against #3 Bulls. Would not be shocked if the Bulls' size enables them to win this series. However, the Bulls are inconsistent, and the Cavs still seem a little better. Cavs 4-3.

Western Conference
#1 Warriors against #5 Grizzlies. I give the Griz a small chance, due to their way of matching up with people being so different. However, most likely it will be a rout. Warriors 4-1.
#2 Rockets against #3 Clippers. Should be a great series. Hopefully Chris Paul's injury heals quickly. Given how it looks now, though, Rockets 4-2.

Round 3
Eastern Conference
#1 Hawk against #2 Cavaliers. Sticking with the LeBrons. Cavs 4-2.

Western Conference
#1 Warriors against #2 Rockets. If Howard keeps it up, this could get very interesting...but probably won't. Warriors 4-1.

NBA Finals
Warriors with home-court against the Cavaliers. Go with the team having the historically great year. Warriors 4-1.

NBA Playoffs 2015

It looks a lot like the Cavs and Warriors are on a collision course, but there are a few “upstarts” that could derail that. Like before I'll give predictions for all rounds now, but only take my Round 1 picks at all seriously (and even those don't take very seriously). Also like before, I don't think any of my picks are particularly surprising, but maybe I'm wrong (and hopefully only on that dimension).

Round 1
Eastern Conference
#1 Hawks against #8 Brooklyn Nets. An upset is possible, especially with the Sefolosha situation and Millsap maybe not himself. Then again, the Nets aren’t good, and I doubt Millsap will take all that long to be good again. Hawks 4-2.
#2 Cavaliers against #7 Celtics. The Celtics are better than people think. Thomas and Zeller are really good, Crowder and Smart of pretty good, and the next 4 guys are solid. Unfortunately that’s not enough to beat the LeBrons. The games in Boston are tossups, the games in Cleveland will be blowouts. Cavaliers 4-1.
#3 Bulls against #6 Bucks. Things are shaping up for the Bulls, finally. They still need Noah to take seriously as a contender (he’s supposed to play, we’ll see). I like the Bucks, but don’t see them doing much this year. Bulls 4-1.
#4 Raptors against #5 Wizards. Both teams started the season very well, both slowed a lot, and both perked up a bit at the end. I just have a feeling the Wizards with Beal back are better. Wizards 4-2.
Western Conference
#1 Warriors against #8 Pelicans. Got to love Anthony Davis, top 10 player, best young big man today, could well be MVP next year. However, Curry is either #1 or #2 this year, and the rest of his team is much better. Warriors 4-1.
#2 Rockets against #7 Mavericks. The talent is close enough that I’m going with the superior coaching of Carlisle enabling the mini-upset. Mavericks 4-2.
#3 Clippers against #6 Spurs. These are the 2 teams most likely to take down the Warriors in the West. It’s too bad they’re playing in round 1, but it should be an excellent series. Go with the champs. Spurs 4-2.
#4 Trail Blazers against #5 Grizzlies (Grizz with home-court). A healthy Portland would be interesting. Oh well. Grizzlies 4-1.

Round 2
Eastern Conference
#1 Hawks against #5 Wizards. Hawks 4-1.
#2 Cavaliers against #3 Bulls. Health could be a big issue for this series. For now, Cavs 4-1.

Western Conference
#1 Warriors against #5 Grizzlies. A small chance of an upset due to the very different styles, but unlikely. Warriors 4-1.
#6 Spurs against #7 Mavericks. These teams always matchup well. Stick with the Spurs, but it will be a basketball purists dream series. Spurs 4-3.

Round 3
Eastern Conference
#1 Hawks against #2 Cavaliers. Cavs 4-2.

Western Conference
#1 Warriors against #6 Spurs. An awesome series. Warriors 4-3.

NBA Finals
Warriors with home-court against the Cavaliers. Warriors 4-2.

2014-15 NBA season predictions in review

I did much better this year. See my predictions here, and actual standings here. To sum up, I went 19-11 across all teams, and 7-1 on my top picks. To be fair, I called half of them as 1/2 picks, so I really went 5-1 on my top picks. Still, pretty, pretty good. This brings my 3-year record to 51-39 overall, and my top picks record to 12-5. Woo!
On the less important prediction vs. actual win total question, I had 2 exactly right (Washington and San Antonio), and on 7 was off by 1 or 2 (Brooklyn, Detroit, Philadelphia, LA Clippers, Portland, Dallas, and Sacramento). I also was way off on both top seeds (17 for both Golden State and Atlanta), and the two worst teams (16 off for Minnesota, and a whopping 24 for the Knicks). Interesting. The average error was 6.8. I'll take it.

Superbowl 2015

Round 1
3-1 picking winners, 2-2 against the spread.

Round 2
3-1 picking winners, 1-3 against the spread.

Round 3
2-0 picking winners, 1-1 against the spread.

Total so far
8-2 picking winners, 4-6 against the spread.

Superbowl
New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks, Patriots favored by 1. When the matchup is this close, it will come down to small things. Such as the Pats center that had stabilized the line being hobbled. Or maybe something big, like whether Seattle gets a defensive touchdown. People are talking up their struggles against tight ends, but that almost all came while Wagner was out; Gronk should be good, but he won’t dominate. I do expect the Pats to largely shut down the Seahawks’ passing game, and they should be able to find holes underneath; they’ll need to stay patient to win. I just have the feeling that o-line problems will be the ultimate problem. Seahawks 23, Patriots 20. Go Pats!

NFL Playoffs 2014-15, Round 3

Round 1
3-1 picking winners, 2-2 against the spread.

Round 2
3-1 picking winners, 1-3 against the spread.

Round 3
Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks, Seahawks favored by 8. Since putting up 108 in 2 weeks mid-season, the Packers’ offense has been good to very good, but not great. Seattle’s D has benefitted from whom they’ve played, when, but has been pretty great for 7 weeks; maybe opponent adjusted we lower that to excellent, but still top notch. If Rodgers was 100% it would be close, but hard to see them going into Seattle and doing it. Plus I’m sure Seattle is aware of how Rodgers’ performance fell off when pressured last week. Seahawks 26, Packers 17.

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots, Patriots favored by 7. Good job by the Colts last week, but that felt like it was more (maybe 60-40) about the Broncos losing than Indy winning. The Pats seemed rusty to start the Bal game; once they shook that off they largely dominated. Add in Luck’s history against Belichick, and I again see a home favorite covering. Patriots 31, Colts 20.

NFL Playoffs 2014-15, Round 2

Round 1
3-1 picking winners, 2-2 against the spread.

Round 2
Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots, Patriots favored by 7. The Ravens may be better than I credited them with, especially as a playoff team. Plus their weakness is hard for the Pats to exploit for big plays. Still, I remember that Flacco has only looked good against the Pats when they haven’t had a strong CB, and Revis is probably the #1 CB in the game, and I don’t see them containing Gronk without exposing huge holes elsewhere. Patriots 30, Ravens 20.

Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks, Seahawks favored by 11.5. Still not totally buying into the Panthers, but the D is strong enough that I don’t expect a blowout. Of course, Seattle’s D is back to quasi-all-time levels, so it could generate its own points. Seahawks 20, Panthers 12.

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers, Packers favored by 6. Dallas is good, but even with his injury I expect Rodgers to slice them apart. Packers 31, Cowboys 23.

Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos, Broncos favored by 7.5. Not ready to pick the Colts on the road. However, Manning has looked off to me lately, like they’ve reduced his workload because they were forced to, not by choice. I guess this is the game that will let us know if that’s the case. I’ll stick with the rested team, but Colts slow them enough to cover. Broncos 27, Colts 21.

NFL Playoffs 2014-15, Round 1

First a review of previous years:

2014: 6-5 picking winners, 4-5-2 against the spread

2013: 4-6, 3-6-1

2012: 7-4, 5-6

2011: 7-4, 6-5

2010: 5-6, 4-7

2009: 7-4, 6-4-1

2008: 6-5, 3-7-1

2007: 7-4, 6-5

2006: 5-6, 5-6

2005: 8-3, 7-4

2004: 5-6, 2-8-1

2003: 8-3, 4-7

Totals: 75-56 picking winners (57.3%), 55-70-6 against the spread (44%). So almost, but not quite, bad enough to use me as a negative indicator.

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers, Panthers favored by 5.5. My initial reaction is that the line was too high. Lindley is bad, but the Carolina streak to end the season wasn’t as good as it looked, and the ‘zona could score. However, Arizona isn’t playing all that well on defense lately, and they have trouble with mobile QBs such as Newton. Panthers 20, Cardinals 10.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers, Steelers favored by 3.5. Even with Le’Veon Bell out, the Steelers are a better team, and have the passing attack to exploit the bad Ravens secondary. Steelers 24, Ravens 17.

Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts, Colts favored 4. Admittedly the Colts have come by their record by beating up on a very weak schedule, going 2-5 against legit teams. However, Luck has shown he can compete with the best, and Andy Dalton/Marvin Lewis have not. Colts 26, Bengals 17.

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys, Cowboys favored by 7.  I’m not a believer in the Lions, and Stafford’s career record on the road against good teams (I think 0-15) is remarkable. While Dallas definitely has to prove something, I’ll take the better team at home. Cowboys 26, Lions 17.

NFL Predictions 2014

Here are my predictions for NFL wins, team-by-team, plus the playoffs. The important parts should be fairly straight forward, but explanationof columns: Team, Wins-Losses, Las Vegas Hilton Over/Under, moneyline for betting the Over, moneyline for betting the Under, and what I calculated those moneylines imply for what "Vegas" thinks a team's chances of going over are.

NFC EAST	Over/Under	Over	Under	Implied Likelihood of Going Over
Philadelphia 11-5	9	+115	-135	45%
Dallas 7-9	8	-110	-110	50%
NY Giants 7-9	7.5	-135	+115	55%
Washington 6-10	7.5	+125	-145	43%
NFC NORTH
Chicago 10-6	8	-140	+120	56%
Green Bay 9-7	10	-145	+125	57%
Detroit 7-9	8	-150	+130	58%
Minnesota 6-10	6	+105	-125	47%
NFC SOUTH
New Orleans 10-6	9.5	-150	+130	58%
Carolina 9-7	8	-130	+110	54%
Tampa Bay 8-8	7	-120	Even	52%
Atlanta 8-8	8	-130	+110	54%
NFC WEST
Seattle 11-5	11	-120	Even	52%
San Francisco 10-6	10.5	-120	Even	52%
Arizona 8-8	7.5	-120	Even	52%
St. Louis 6-10	7.5	-110	-110	50%
AFC EAST
New England 11-5	10.5	-135	+115	55%
NY Jets 8-8	7	-125	+105	53%
Miami 6-10	8	+110	-130	46%
Buffalo 5-11	6.5	-130	+110	54%
AFC NORTH
Cincinnati 9-7	9	-135	+115	55%
Baltimore 8-8	8.5	-120	Even	52%
Pittsburgh 6-10	8.5	-120	Even	52%
Cleveland 6-10	6.5	-150	+130	58%
AFC SOUTH
Indianapolis 10-6	9.5	-150	+130	58%
Houston 8-8	7.5	-145	+125	57%
Tennessee 7-9	7	-130	+110	54%
Jacksonville 5-11	4.5	-150	+130	58%
AFC WEST
Denver 11-5	11	-140	+120	56%
San Diego 10-6	8	-120	Even	52%
Kansas City 9-7	8	-120	Even	52%
Oakland 4-12	5	+130	-150	42%

NFC division winners: #1 seed Philadelphia, #2 Seattle, #3 Chicago, #4 New Orleans. Wild cards San Francisco, Green Bay.

AFC division winners: #1 seed New England, #2 Denver, #3 Indianapolis, #4 Cincinnati. Wild cards San Diego, Kansas City.

AFC Championship Game: New England over Denver.
NFC Championship Game: Philadelphia over Seattle. (Yep, both #1s over both #2s)

Super Bowl: New England over Philadelphia. (Yes, I'm a homer, but Revis Island and Gronk seem like they'll be enough to do it)

Favorite Overs: Philadelphia, Chicago, San Diego.
Favorite Unders: St Louis, Pittsburgh, Miami, Buffalo. I'd add Washington, but that's a stay-away team.

Superbowl 2014

Almost forgot to post this, will do a recap later. I'm predicting Seattle 24, Broncos 23.