NFL Playoffs 2014-15, Round 1

First a review of previous years:

2014: 6-5 picking winners, 4-5-2 against the spread

2013: 4-6, 3-6-1

2012: 7-4, 5-6

2011: 7-4, 6-5

2010: 5-6, 4-7

2009: 7-4, 6-4-1

2008: 6-5, 3-7-1

2007: 7-4, 6-5

2006: 5-6, 5-6

2005: 8-3, 7-4

2004: 5-6, 2-8-1

2003: 8-3, 4-7

Totals: 75-56 picking winners (57.3%), 55-70-6 against the spread (44%). So almost, but not quite, bad enough to use me as a negative indicator.

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers, Panthers favored by 5.5. My initial reaction is that the line was too high. Lindley is bad, but the Carolina streak to end the season wasn’t as good as it looked, and the ‘zona could score. However, Arizona isn’t playing all that well on defense lately, and they have trouble with mobile QBs such as Newton. Panthers 20, Cardinals 10.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers, Steelers favored by 3.5. Even with Le’Veon Bell out, the Steelers are a better team, and have the passing attack to exploit the bad Ravens secondary. Steelers 24, Ravens 17.

Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts, Colts favored 4. Admittedly the Colts have come by their record by beating up on a very weak schedule, going 2-5 against legit teams. However, Luck has shown he can compete with the best, and Andy Dalton/Marvin Lewis have not. Colts 26, Bengals 17.

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys, Cowboys favored by 7.  I’m not a believer in the Lions, and Stafford’s career record on the road against good teams (I think 0-15) is remarkable. While Dallas definitely has to prove something, I’ll take the better team at home. Cowboys 26, Lions 17.