Implied Dissent

Tuesday, September 02, 2014

NFL Predictions 2014

Here are my predictions for NFL wins, team-by-team, plus the playoffs. The important parts should be fairly straight forward, but explanationof columns: Team, Wins-Losses, Las Vegas Hilton Over/Under, moneyline for betting the Over, moneyline for betting the Under, and what I calculated those moneylines imply for what "Vegas" thinks a team's chances of going over are.

NFC EAST Over/Under Over Under Implied Likelihood of Going Over
Philadelphia 11-5 9 +115 -135 45%
Dallas 7-9 8 -110 -110 50%
NY Giants 7-9 7.5 -135 +115 55%
Washington 6-10 7.5 +125 -145 43%
NFC NORTH
Chicago 10-6 8 -140 +120 56%
Green Bay 9-7 10 -145 +125 57%
Detroit 7-9 8 -150 +130 58%
Minnesota 6-10 6 +105 -125 47%
NFC SOUTH
New Orleans 10-6 9.5 -150 +130 58%
Carolina 9-7 8 -130 +110 54%
Tampa Bay 8-8 7 -120 Even 52%
Atlanta 8-8 8 -130 +110 54%
NFC WEST
Seattle 11-5 11 -120 Even 52%
San Francisco 10-6 10.5 -120 Even 52%
Arizona 8-8 7.5 -120 Even 52%
St. Louis 6-10 7.5 -110 -110 50%
AFC EAST
New England 11-5 10.5 -135 +115 55%
NY Jets 8-8 7 -125 +105 53%
Miami 6-10 8 +110 -130 46%
Buffalo 5-11 6.5 -130 +110 54%
AFC NORTH
Cincinnati 9-7 9 -135 +115 55%
Baltimore 8-8 8.5 -120 Even 52%
Pittsburgh 6-10 8.5 -120 Even 52%
Cleveland 6-10 6.5 -150 +130 58%
AFC SOUTH
Indianapolis 10-6 9.5 -150 +130 58%
Houston 8-8 7.5 -145 +125 57%
Tennessee 7-9 7 -130 +110 54%
Jacksonville 5-11 4.5 -150 +130 58%
AFC WEST
Denver 11-5 11 -140 +120 56%
San Diego 10-6 8 -120 Even 52%
Kansas City 9-7 8 -120 Even 52%
Oakland 4-12 5 +130 -150 42%

NFC division winners: #1 seed Philadelphia, #2 Seattle, #3 Chicago, #4 New Orleans. Wild cards San Francisco, Green Bay.

AFC division winners: #1 seed New England, #2 Denver, #3 Indianapolis, #4 Cincinnati. Wild cards San Diego, Kansas City.

AFC Championship Game: New England over Denver.
NFC Championship Game: Philadelphia over Seattle. (Yep, both #1s over both #2s)

Super Bowl: New England over Philadelphia. (Yes, I'm a homer, but Revis Island and Gronk seem like they'll be enough to do it)

Favorite Overs: Philadelphia, Chicago, San Diego.
Favorite Unders: St Louis, Pittsburgh, Miami, Buffalo. I'd add Washington, but that's a stay-away team.

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