Implied Dissent

Sunday, January 18, 2015

NFL Playoffs 2014-15, Round 3

Round 1
3-1 picking winners, 2-2 against the spread.

Round 2
3-1 picking winners, 1-3 against the spread.

Round 3
Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks, Seahawks favored by 8. Since putting up 108 in 2 weeks mid-season, the Packers’ offense has been good to very good, but not great. Seattle’s D has benefitted from whom they’ve played, when, but has been pretty great for 7 weeks; maybe opponent adjusted we lower that to excellent, but still top notch. If Rodgers was 100% it would be close, but hard to see them going into Seattle and doing it. Plus I’m sure Seattle is aware of how Rodgers’ performance fell off when pressured last week. Seahawks 26, Packers 17.

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots, Patriots favored by 7. Good job by the Colts last week, but that felt like it was more (maybe 60-40) about the Broncos losing than Indy winning. The Pats seemed rusty to start the Bal game; once they shook that off they largely dominated. Add in Luck’s history against Belichick, and I again see a home favorite covering. Patriots 31, Colts 20.

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Saturday, January 10, 2015

NFL Playoffs 2014-15, Round 2

Round 1
3-1 picking winners, 2-2 against the spread.

Round 2
Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots, Patriots favored by 7. The Ravens may be better than I credited them with, especially as a playoff team. Plus their weakness is hard for the Pats to exploit for big plays. Still, I remember that Flacco has only looked good against the Pats when they haven’t had a strong CB, and Revis is probably the #1 CB in the game, and I don’t see them containing Gronk without exposing huge holes elsewhere. Patriots 30, Ravens 20.

Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks, Seahawks favored by 11.5. Still not totally buying into the Panthers, but the D is strong enough that I don’t expect a blowout. Of course, Seattle’s D is back to quasi-all-time levels, so it could generate its own points. Seahawks 20, Panthers 12.

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers, Packers favored by 6. Dallas is good, but even with his injury I expect Rodgers to slice them apart. Packers 31, Cowboys 23.

Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos, Broncos favored by 7.5. Not ready to pick the Colts on the road. However, Manning has looked off to me lately, like they’ve reduced his workload because they were forced to, not by choice. I guess this is the game that will let us know if that’s the case. I’ll stick with the rested team, but Colts slow them enough to cover. Broncos 27, Colts 21.

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Saturday, January 03, 2015

NFL Playoffs 2014-15, Round 1

First a review of previous years:
2014: 6-5 picking winners, 4-5-2 against the spread
2013: 4-6, 3-6-1
2012: 7-4, 5-6
2011: 7-4, 6-5
2010: 5-6, 4-7
2009: 7-4, 6-4-1
2008: 6-5, 3-7-1
2007: 7-4, 6-5
2006: 5-6, 5-6
2005: 8-3, 7-4
2004: 5-6, 2-8-1
2003: 8-3, 4-7
Totals: 75-56 picking winners (57.3%), 55-70-6 against the spread (44%). So almost, but not quite, bad enough to use me as a negative indicator.

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers, Panthers favored by 5.5. My initial reaction is that the line was too high. Lindley is bad, but the Carolina streak to end the season wasn’t as good as it looked, and the ‘zona could score. However, Arizona isn’t playing all that well on defense lately, and they have trouble with mobile QBs such as Newton. Panthers 20, Cardinals 10.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers, Steelers favored by 3.5. Even with Le’Veon Bell out, the Steelers are a better team, and have the passing attack to exploit the bad Ravens secondary. Steelers 24, Ravens 17.

Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts, Colts favored 4. Admittedly the Colts have come by their record by beating up on a very weak schedule, going 2-5 against legit teams. However, Luck has shown he can compete with the best, and Andy Dalton/Marvin Lewis have not. Colts 26, Bengals 17.

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys, Cowboys favored by 7.  I’m not a believer in the Lions, and Stafford’s career record on the road against good teams (I think 0-15) is remarkable. While Dallas definitely has to prove something, I’ll take the better team at home. Cowboys 26, Lions 17.

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