Implied Dissent

Wednesday, January 27, 2010

What's Holding Us Back

I know it's not the most exciting topic, but it's vitally important. The Federal Reserve's policy of paying interest on banks' reserves has been killing the economy. Yglesias hits the nail right on the head. Fortunately we are probably at the point now in the cycle where it's not going to be a major problem, merely holding us back from the strong growth snapback we should be experiencing. This would be easier to see if we had a good objective indicator of the stance of monetary policy (perhaps Sumner's NGDP futures market?)


Sunday, January 24, 2010

NFL Playoffs, week 3

So the only game I got right last week was the one I had the least confidence in. Great. 3-5 overall now.
Jets at Colts, Colts favored by 9. The Jets D is certainly stout, and their running game is strong. And Sanchez isn't killing them. However, they've also had some luck. Manning loves to be blitzed, and the Colts in general are a lot better. If Sanchez makes a big play or two, or the NJ runners can overpower guys, or they get a non-offensive touchdown, I could see an upset, but it's unlikely. They will, however, keep the total score low and thus cover. Colts 24, Jets 16.
Vikings at Saints, Saints favored by 4. The Vikings are a very good team. The Saints are an excellent team, and home, and had an extra day. It will be crazy loud in that dome. Saints 34, Vikings 20.

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Sunday, January 17, 2010

Why to not vote for Coakley

Well, one of the reasons.

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Saturday, January 16, 2010

NFL Playoffs, week 2

So I went 2-2 last week, both picking winners and against the spread. Before we move onto this weekend's games, a review of previous years:
2009: 7-4 picking winner, 6-4-1 against the spread
2008: 6-5, 3-7-1
2007: 7-4, 6-5
2006: 5-6, 5-6
2005: 8-3, 7-4
2004: 5-6, 2-8-1
2003: 8-3, 4-7
Totals: 46-31 picking winners (60%), 33-41-3 against the spread (45%).
Cardinals at Saints, Saints favored by 6.5. I'm struggling with this one. Not 100% sold on the Cards, but that offense was sick last week. Was 100% sold on the Saints a few weeks ago, but they really sputtered down the stretch. I guess I'll say Saints 35-28, but this is a stay-away game for sure if you're putting any real money on it.
Ravens at Colts, Colts favored by 6.5. I think this actually a fairly straight forward one. The Colts were great in the regular season, but every time they have a bye and rest their starters in the last week of the season (or two in this case), they lose their first (and thus only) playoff game. The Ravens just need Flacco to improve to decent from last week's poor performance and they're good. Ravens 27, Colts 20.
Cowboys at Vikings, Vikings favored by 3. The Vikings played a very easy schedule, and tailed off at the end. And I'm still a Favre doubter. They have a chance with AP, but they have one of the few coaches who Wade Phillips can outsmart, and Dallas is playing very well. Cowboys 31, Vikings 20.
Jets at Chargers, Chargers favored by 8. The Jets definitely have a chance, with their stout D and running game. However, I'd be surprised if Sanchez can do it again on the road in the playoffs, especially if he's playing from behind. The Chargers have too many weapons, and are just too plain good. Chargers 31, Jets 17.

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Friday, January 15, 2010

I <3 GG

Cass Sunstein scares the living bejeebus out of me. The fact that he has a significant (or any, really) role in the Obama administration is a disgrace. I particularly would like to point out his advocacy of what amounts to a conspiracy to deal with people advocating conspiracy theories. Think I'm exaggerating? "In 2008...Sunstein [proposed] that the U.S. Government...'cognitively infiltrate'...activist groups which advocate views that Sunstein deems "false conspiracy theories" about the Government."
Also, Greenwald makes some good points on the Jon Gruber situation in the same piece.

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Saturday, January 09, 2010

NFL Playoffs

I'll review my past sucky performances soon, but need to put up my picks.
Jets over Bengals, win (Bengals -2.5).
Cowboys over Eagles, win and cover (Cowboys -4)
Patriots over Ravens, win and cover (Pats -3)
Packers over Cardinals, win and obviously cover (pick 'em).

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