NBA Playoffs 2019 II

Round 1
7 or 8 of the series correct, pending Denver winning tonight. 1 or 2 of those in the right number of games (again pending Denver). I think I was right to say not to overlook Orlando, but wrong to think Utah could do well against Houston/in the playoffs.

Round 2
Eastern Conference
#1 Milwaukee Bucks vs. #4 Boston Celtics. The C’s look better, but not enough. I’m upgrading them to 30% chance of winning the series. Bucks 4-1 (but closer than that).
#2 Toronto Raptors vs. #3 Philadelphia 76ers. I could easily see it going strongly one way or the other, but I think Toronto got their act together more. Raptors 4-3.
Western Conference
#1 Golden State Warriors vs. #4 Houston Rockets. The question is if GSW is slipping, or if they just slipped a bit against the Clips. I’m sticking with the 3 out of 4 champs. Warriors 4-3. One of these will be the West champs.
#2 Denver Nuggets vs. #3 Portland Trailblazers, or #3 Portland Trailblazers vs. #7 San Antonio Spurs. Portland has handled the loss of Nurkic better than I expected, though helped by OKC not playing well. This will be the worst series of round 2, by quality of play. Trailblazers 4-2 over (probably) Denver, or 4-1 over San Antonio.

Round 3
#1 Milwaukee Bucks vs. #2 Toronto Raptors. Bucks are too good. Bucks 4-1.
#1 Golden State Warriors vs. #3 Portland Trailblazers. Warriors 4-1.

Finals
Bucks 4, Warriors 3. Giannis, shooters, and defense.

NBA Playoffs 2019

Very chalky, but will try to identify where upsets might come.

Round 1
Eastern Conference
#1 Milwaukee Bucks vs. #8 Detroit Pistons. Maybe the Pistons get 1, probably not. Bucks 4-0.
#2 Toronto Raptors vs. #7 Orlando Magic. People are dismissing the Magic; they shouldn’t. This is my series with the greatest combination of no one expecting it and the chance of an upset. Raptors 4-3.
#3 Philadelphia 76ers vs. #6 Brooklyn Nets. I’m not buying the D’Angelo Russell hype train this year (he’s better, not close to All-Star level), but this is almost a perfect opponent for him. Philly could be champs because of their top 5’s firepower, or could go out early due to the lack of depth and how teams can adjust their defense much more in the playoffs for the matchup. 76ers 4-3.
#4 Boston Celtics vs. #5 Indiana Pacers. I want to believe the Celtics have figured it out, that Gordo is >90% back, that the Smart injury will help make the rotations better. TBD. Meanwhile the Pacers look a lot like the 2018 Celtics. Celtics 4-3.
Western Conference
#1 Golden State Warriors vs. #8 Los Angeles Clippers. The Warriors get sloppy once. Warriors 4-1.
#2 Denver Nuggets vs. #7 San Antonio Spurs. Experience vs. talent. I think the talent gap is too big, but don’t be shocked. Nuggets 4-3.
#3 Portland Trailblazers vs. #6 Oklahoma City Thunder. The Thunder looked like a really contender for a while, but I don’t see it anymore. Unfortunately, PTB lost its big guy, so this will be competitive. Trailblazers 4-3.
#4 Houston Rockets vs. #5 Utah Jazz. Probably the best round 1 series. Key will be if Gobert can defend in space, and if someone else steps up for Utah offensively. Rockets 4-3.

Round 2
Bucks 4, Celtics 1. If the Celtics really have it together (23% chance), they win in a tough 6 or 7.
Raptors 4, 76ers 1. Could see Lowry sinking things, though.
Warriors 4, Rockets 3. Rockets will probably be better than last year, but Warriors won’t take them lightly.
Nuggets 4, Trailblazers 3. Eh.

Round 3
Bucks 4, Raptors 3. But not really this close, kinda like Bos-Atl in 2008.
Warriors 4, Nuggets 1. Would be very surprised if anyone but Warriors or Rockets wins the West.

Finals
Warriors 4, Bucks 3. Great series.