Implied Dissent

Saturday, January 04, 2014

NFL Playoffs 2013-14

First a review of previous years:
2013: 4-6 picking winners, 3-6-1 against the spread
2012: 7-4, 5-6
2011: 7-4, 6-5
2010: 5-6, 4-7
2009: 7-4, 6-4-1
2008: 6-5, 3-7-1
2007: 7-4, 6-5
2006: 5-6, 5-6
2005: 8-3, 7-4
2004: 5-6, 2-8-1
2003: 8-3, 4-7
Totals: 69-51 picking winners (57.5%), 51-65-4 against the spread (44%). So almost, but not quite, bad enough to use me as a negative indicator.

Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts, Colts favored by 1. Neither team is great, but the Colts are showing up for their tough opponents, while the Chiefs have yet to beat a good team (Philly doesn't count, based on how they were playing then). Colts 26, Chiefs 17.

New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles, Eagles favored by 2.5. The Saints are just an okay road team, less than that outdoors in the playoffs. The Eagles recent run has included some cupcakes, but still is very encouraging. Eagles 34, Saints 27.

San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals, Bengals favored by 7. San Diego's trouble beating the Chiefs' second string last week is concerning, but they have gotten better as the season has gone along. However, the Bengals are a really good home team, and I think are better on both lines; I doubt they'll win a roadie, but this week should work out for them. Bengals 27, Chargers 20 (call it 19.5 for gambling purposes).

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers, 49ers favored by 3. It's hard to know what to make of the Packers. I generally like to look at how a team has done going into the playoffs, but only getting (a rusty) Aaron Rodgers back a week ago complicates that. I think he'll be close to himself this week, and so they should be very good, but this could be all over the place. Then you consider that they've had quite a bit of trouble dealing with Kaepernick, and that SF has the superior coach. And that SF closed the season very well. Then again, SF benefited from weak opponents in their big wins, while good teams play them very close. My gut says to go with Rodgers at home. Packers 27, 49ers 23.

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