Implied Dissent

Thursday, January 01, 2009

Records Review

Happy New Year!
Going over my NFL predictions for this season, I see some excellent ones, and some terrible ones. First off, on average I was off by 2.75 wins per team. I consider a prediction that is off by 2 as being reasonably good and by 3 as poor, so I guess my average pick was mediocre. Best picks? Tampa Bay and Buffalo, both exactly right. Worst pick? Atlanta, off by 7 wins. Here I massively underestimated how good Matt Ryan would be and how much the improved coaching situation and generally improved organizational stability would help. Of course, most people made the same mistakes, so I don't feel too bad about it. Looking at all of my very bad picks (off by 5+ wins), I'd say that 5 were very defendable, and the other 2 were somewhat so. Out of all 32 calls, 14 times I had the direction correct (more or less wins in 2008), 4 times wrong, the rest I either predicted no change or there wasn't any (or both). For the playoffs, I picked 6 out of 12 correctly. Notably, both of my Super Bowl teams missed the payoffs, though I also note that Dallas missed by 1 win, and that my Pats tied the record for most victories without making the playoffs. Bottom line? I'm not very good at this, but I'm still going to do it. Playoff picks upcoming.

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