Onto championship weekend! 2-2 picking winners last week, 1-3 against the spread. Bringing me to 3-5 picking winners, and 1-6-1 against the spread for the playoffs so far. Maybe you should bet against my picks.
Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots, Patriots favored by 3. The Colts’ offense is extremely hot right now. No punts in two playoff games is kind of amazing. But they’ve done it at home against a defense that didn’t show up, and against one of the worst defenses in the league. New England has arguably the best defense, the game will be in Foxboro, and the weather should favor defenses in general. So anything can happen on that side of the ball. The key will be long plays vs. red zone performance: The Colts have a big advantage on long pass plays, especially out of their side of the field, so keeping those from turning into touchdowns is the key for the Pats, and the Pats have a big advantage inside of the red zone, so taking advantage of scoring opportunities there will be very important for the Colts. I expect both squads to look great at times and horrible at times. When the Pats have the ball could actually be more important. The last time the teams played, the Pats went through the Colts D almost like it wasn’t there for half the game, and looked like a high school team in the second half. What sort of result should we expect from this matchup? I’m thinking the Colts will be able to keep the Pats from dominating them, but the New England will generally outperform the Colts’ D. One key is for the Pats to be able to run the ball and keep the clock running, which I think they’ll be able to do, as Smith has been running much better recently and despite their overall weakness running the ball, the Pats are rarely stuffed on their runs. As for special teams, the Pats are better on kick returns on both sides of the ball, but Indy has the top field goal kicker in the game, so it should be a wash, though if Vinatieri is healthy the Pats will control this aspect of the game. So, while a Colts’ win wouldn’t be shocking, I’m sticking with my hometown team. Patriots 30, Colts 26.
Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles, Eagles favored by 4.5. I tried convincing myself the Panthers would win this game, but I don’t think I can do it. I don’t want to call them a fraud, but they aren’t this good. And now that it looks like Stephen Davis won’t play I think the Eagles will handle this game easily. Admittedly the Eagles are banged up a bit too, but going back to the first rule of picking playoff games, don’t pick lousy QBs on the road. And the last rule, look at those QBs again. Well, Delhomme is probably a better QB than I’ve given him credit for, but I still don’t trust him in back-to-back playoff road games. Plus, one of the reasons he’s been effective is that Stephen Davis has provided a good running game behind him. Well, Foster is no Davis, and it’s going to hurt the Panthers a lot. On the other side of the ball, McNabb ain’t great, but he is very good, and the Panthers D is overrated. On special teams Philly is generally better on kick returns, and FG kicking is about equal, maybe a slight advantage to the Panthers. I don’t think the Eagles offense will be great, but they will put up a lot of points due to very good field position. Eagles 34, Panthers 10.
Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots, Patriots favored by 3. The Colts’ offense is extremely hot right now. No punts in two playoff games is kind of amazing. But they’ve done it at home against a defense that didn’t show up, and against one of the worst defenses in the league. New England has arguably the best defense, the game will be in Foxboro, and the weather should favor defenses in general. So anything can happen on that side of the ball. The key will be long plays vs. red zone performance: The Colts have a big advantage on long pass plays, especially out of their side of the field, so keeping those from turning into touchdowns is the key for the Pats, and the Pats have a big advantage inside of the red zone, so taking advantage of scoring opportunities there will be very important for the Colts. I expect both squads to look great at times and horrible at times. When the Pats have the ball could actually be more important. The last time the teams played, the Pats went through the Colts D almost like it wasn’t there for half the game, and looked like a high school team in the second half. What sort of result should we expect from this matchup? I’m thinking the Colts will be able to keep the Pats from dominating them, but the New England will generally outperform the Colts’ D. One key is for the Pats to be able to run the ball and keep the clock running, which I think they’ll be able to do, as Smith has been running much better recently and despite their overall weakness running the ball, the Pats are rarely stuffed on their runs. As for special teams, the Pats are better on kick returns on both sides of the ball, but Indy has the top field goal kicker in the game, so it should be a wash, though if Vinatieri is healthy the Pats will control this aspect of the game. So, while a Colts’ win wouldn’t be shocking, I’m sticking with my hometown team. Patriots 30, Colts 26.
Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles, Eagles favored by 4.5. I tried convincing myself the Panthers would win this game, but I don’t think I can do it. I don’t want to call them a fraud, but they aren’t this good. And now that it looks like Stephen Davis won’t play I think the Eagles will handle this game easily. Admittedly the Eagles are banged up a bit too, but going back to the first rule of picking playoff games, don’t pick lousy QBs on the road. And the last rule, look at those QBs again. Well, Delhomme is probably a better QB than I’ve given him credit for, but I still don’t trust him in back-to-back playoff road games. Plus, one of the reasons he’s been effective is that Stephen Davis has provided a good running game behind him. Well, Foster is no Davis, and it’s going to hurt the Panthers a lot. On the other side of the ball, McNabb ain’t great, but he is very good, and the Panthers D is overrated. On special teams Philly is generally better on kick returns, and FG kicking is about equal, maybe a slight advantage to the Panthers. I don’t think the Eagles offense will be great, but they will put up a lot of points due to very good field position. Eagles 34, Panthers 10.
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