Implied Dissent

Saturday, January 07, 2012

NFL Playoffs

First a review of previous years:
2011: 7-4 picking the winner, 6-5 against the spread
2010: 5-6 picking the winner, 4-7 against the spread
2009: 7-4, 6-4-1
2008: 6-5, 3-7-1
2007: 7-4, 6-5
2006: 5-6, 5-6
2005: 8-3, 7-4
2004: 5-6, 2-8-1
2003: 8-3, 4-7
Totals: 58-41 picking winners (59%), 43-53-3 against the spread (45%).

Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans, Texans favored by 4. Wouldn't be surprised either way in this one, but I think I'll take the rookie QB at home with the strong running game over the rookie QB on the road. There is definitely a risk of defensive TDs skewing things. Texans 17, Bengals 10.
(updated at 5:11pm)
Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints, Saints favored by 11. I'm not very impressed with the Lions, and the Saints have been playing great. They can win a shootout, and they have an excellent running game to gash the Lions' poor run defense. That running might be the only reason it won't be a big blowout, by eating up the clock. Saints 38, Lions 27 (since that equals the line, call it 38.5 for the Saints).
Atlanta Falcons at New York (NJ) Giants, Giants favored by 3. The Falcons always beat bad and mediocre teams, and almost always lose to good teams. The Giants are all of those. However, I suspect the good Giants team will show up. Looks like the weather will be decent, helping Eli. Giants 23, Falcons 20 (call it Falcons 20.5 for line purposes).
Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos, Steelers favored by 9. The Steelers are missing Clark, Roethlisberger is hobbled, and the confusion factor for their D won't be a big factor against Tebow. And yet, they're still the better team. Don't count out the Broncos, but I doubt they'll generate the offense or turnovers to get it done. Steelers 20, Broncos 13.

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