Implied Dissent

Tuesday, May 31, 2011

NBA Finals

First, I should review my record so far. Round 1, 6 out of 8 right. Round 2, 3 out of 4 for my pre-playoffs picks, 2 out of 4 at the time. Round 3, 1 out of 2 pre-playoffs, 0 right in between rounds 1 and 2, and 1 out of 2 at the time. So 9 out of 14 overall, counting just the picks made at the beginning of each round. Probably average.
So, the Finals. Miami Heat against Dallas Mavericks. As Bucher said, "good versus evil" (not that I see it that way, but it is the way it seems most do). People look at the Heat as either a 2 or 3 man team (I sometimes have), but Mike Miller (and to lesser extent Haslem as well) has played well for them. It appears as though they now have a legit 5 man lineup to put out there at crunch time. People are looking at Dallas as a one man show with a lot of depth; I think that overlooks how very good Jason Kidd and Tyson Chandler are. I kind of look at it as 2 through 5 the teams are pretty much even, Dallas has a much better bench, and LeBron is the best player in the league (so obviously in the series as well). Benches are less important in the playoffs than the regular season, plus Miami has homecourt advantage. If Dallas wins, it will be because they can take advantage of Miami's bench, maybe because of foul trouble for Wade or Bron, and if Dirk and the other shooters (with the team's excellent ball movement) can keep hitting shots. The Heat win by getting to the line a lot and by not giving up many open shots. I think The Heat win in 6.

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