Implied Dissent

Wednesday, September 05, 2018

NFL Predictions 2018

Here are my NFL team win predictions, with Vegas over/under in parenthesis. That is followed by the odds for the over, then the odds for the under, then my interpretation of what those two odds mean is the implied likelihood of the team going over. (via https://www.oddsshark.com/nfl/nfl-over-under-win-totals).

AFC East
New England Patriots: 11-5 (11) Over -140 Under +110 Chance Over 55%
Buffalo Bills: 5-11 (6) Over +170 Under -210 Chance Over 35%
Miami Dolphins: 6-10 (6.5) Over -135 Under +105 Chance Over 54%
New York Jets: 6-10 (6) Over -105 Under -125 Chance Over 48%
AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers: 8-8 (10.5) Over -105 Under -125 Chance Over 48%
Baltimore Ravens: 7-9 (8) Over -180 Under +150 Chance Over 62%
Cincinnati Bengals: 7-9 (6.5) Over -200 Under +160 Chance Over 64%
Cleveland Browns: 5-11 (5.5) Over -160 Under +130 Chance Over 59%
AFC South
Jacksonville Jaguars: 10-6 (9) Over -135 Under +105 Chance Over 54%
Tennessee Titans: 8-8 (8) Over -110 Under -120 Chance Over 49%
Houston Texans: 9-7 (8.5) Over -150 Under +120 Chance Over 57%
Indianapolis Colts: 7-9 (6.5) Over -190 Under +155 Chance Over 63%
AFC West
Kansas City Chiefs: 9-7 (8.5) Over -115 Under -115 Chance Over 50%
Los Angeles Chargers: 9-7 (9.5) Over -125 Under -105 Chance Over 52%
Oakland Raiders: 5-11 (7.5) Over +110 Under -140 Chance Over 45%
Denver Broncos: 8-8 (7) Over -160 Under +130 Chance Over 59%
NFC East
Philadelphia Eagles: 11-5 (10) Over -125 Under -105 Chance Over 52%
Dallas Cowboys: 8-8 (8.5) Over +120 Under -150 Chance Over 43%
Washington Redskins: 7-9 (7) Over -135 Under +105 Chance Over 54%
New York Giants: 6-10 (7) Over -145 Under +115 Chance Over 56%
NFC North
Minnesota Vikings: 11-5 (10) Over -160 Under +130 Chance Over 59%
Detroit Lions: 7-9 (7.5) Over -115 Under -115 Chance Over 50%
Green Bay Packers: 10-6 (10) Over -130 Under +100 Chance Over 53%
Chicago Bears: 9-7 (6.5) Over -140 Under +110 Chance Over 55%
NFC South
New Orleans Saints: 10-6 (9.5) Over -145 Under +115 Chance Over 56%
Carolina Panthers: 9-7 (9) Over +150 Under -180 Chance Over 38%
Atlanta Falcons: 10-6 (9) Over -160 Under +130 Chance Over 59%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 6-10 (6.5) Over +135 Under -165 Chance Over 40%
NFC West
Los Angeles Rams: 12-4 (10) Over -140 Under +110 Chance Over 55%
Seattle Seahawks: 6-10 (8) Over +140 Under -170 Chance Over 39%
Arizona Cardinals: 6-10 (5.5) Over -200 Under +170 Chance Over 65%
San Francisco 49ers: 8-8 (8.5) Over +140 Under -170 Chance Over 39%

AFC division winners: New England (#1 seed), Jacksonville (#2 seed), LA Chargers (#3 seed), Pittsburgh (#4 seed). Wild cards: Houston and Kansas City.

NFC division winners: LA Rams (#1 seed), Philadelphia (#2 seed), Minnesota (#3 seed), Atlanta (#4 seed). Wild cards: Green Bay and New Orleans.

Superbowl: New England over LA. Got to keep going with the Pats until they’re done.

Favorite overs: Bears, Rams
Favorite unders: Steelers, Seahawks, Raiders

Review of prior years: Last year 0-1, bringing NFL top picks record to 14-7-1.

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