NBA Predictions 2024-25

Take with the usual grain of salt. Over/Unders and odds via the DraftKings app. Favorites in bold.

Boston Celtics: Wins 56 O/U 58.5 Odds: for over -110, for under -110

New York Knicks: Wins 56 O/U 54.5 Odds: -110, -110

Milwaukee Bucks: Wins 52 O/U 50.5 Odds: -105, -115

Cleveland Cavaliers: Wins 50 O/U 48.5 Odds: -115, -105

Orlando Magic: Wins 50 O/U 47.5 Odds: -120, 100

Indiana Pacers: Wins 48 O/U 46.5 Odds: -115, -105

Philadelphia 76ers: Wins 47 O/U 49.5 Odds: -115, -105

Miami Heat: Wins 43 O/U 44.5 Odds: -105, -115

Chicago Bulls: Wins 29 O/U 28.5 Odds: -105, -115

Atlanta Hawks: Wins 34 O/U 36.5 Odds: -105, -115

Brooklyn Nets: Wins 22 O/U 19.5 Odds: -115, -105

Toronto Raptors: Wins 26 O/U 29.5 Odds: -120, 100

Charlotte Hornets: Wins 23 O/U 30.5 Odds: -105, -115

Washington Wizards: Wins 20 O/U 19.5 Odds: -130, 105

Detroit Pistons: Wins 25 O/U 25.5 Odds: -120, 100

Oklahoma City Thunder: Wins 60 O/U 56.5 Odds: -120, 100

Denver Nuggets: Wins 52 O/U 50.5 Odds: -120, 100

Minnesota Timberwolves: Wins 52 O/U 52.5 Odds: -105, -115

Los Angeles Clippers: Wins 35 O/U 35.5 Odds: -115, -105

Dallas Mavericks: Wins 52 O/U 49.5 Odds: -120, 100

Phoenix Suns: Wins 49 O/U 47.5 Odds: -115, -105

New Orleans Pelicans: Wins 46 O/U 46.5 Odds: 100, -120

Los Angeles Lakers: Wins 37 O/U 43.5 Odds: 100, -120

Sacramento Kings: Wins 45 O/U 46.5 Odds: 100, -120

Golden State Warriors: Wins 45 O/U 43.5 Odds: -110, -110

Houston Rockets: Wins 43 O/U 43.5 Odds: -115, -115

Utah Jazz: Wins 28 O/U 28.5 Odds: 100, -120

Memphis Grizzlies: Wins 44 O/U 47.5 Odds: -110, -110

San Antonio Spurs: Wins 39 O/U 36.5 Odds: -115, -105

Portland Trail Blazers: Wins 22 O/U 22.5 Odds: 100, -120

NBA Finals: Celtics over Thunder

Review of record: 28-16 (punted on last year)

NFL Predictions 2024

Here are my 2024-25 NFL team win predictions (over/unders and odds via the DraftKings app).

-Baltimore Ravens 12-5, OVER the 10.5 line (-120)

-Cleveland Browns 11-6, OVER the 8.5 line (-135)

-Jacksonville Jaguars 10-7, OVER the 8.5 line (-110)

-Kansas City Chiefs 10-7, UNDER the 11.5 line (-105)

-Los Angeles Chargers 10-7, OVER the 8.5 line (-155)

-Chicago Bears 7-10, UNDER the 9.5 line (-150)

-TOP PICK (in part due to the +125) - Atlanta Falcons 7-10, UNDER the 9.5 line (+125)

-Seattle Seahawks 9-8, OVER the 7.5 line (-150)

Review of prior years: Skipped last year. Two years ago was 1-2, bringing NFL top picks record to 25-10-3.

Super Bowl: The 49ers get the monkey off their back. San Francisco over the Baltimore Ravens.

NBA Predictions 2022-23 (the return)

 Take with the usual grain of salt. Over/Unders and odds via the DraftKings app.

Miami Heat 48 O/U 48.5 (-110/-110) 

Boston Celtics 54 O/U 53.5 (-105/-115) 

Milwaukee Bucks 52 O/U 52.5 (-105/-115) 

Philadelphia 76ers 54 O/U 50.5 (-120/+100 ) 

Toronto Raptors 48 O/U 45.5 (-150/+120 ) 

Chicago Bulls 37 O/U 41.5 (-125/+105 ) 

Brooklyn Nets 49 O/U 50.5 (-120/+100 ) - stay away

Cleveland Cavaliers 47 O/U 47.5 (-125/+105 ) 

Atlanta Hawks 46 O/U 45.5 (-120/+100 ) 

Charlotte Hornets 35 O/U 36.5 (+100 /-120) 

New York Knicks 40 O/U 38.5 (-110/-110) 

Washington Wizards 31 O/U 36.5 (+100 /-120) 

Indiana Pacers 26 O/U 23.5 (-110/-110) - stay away

Detroit Pistons 28 O/U 29.5 (-125/+105 ) 

Orlando Magic 27 O/U 26.5 (-120/+100 ) 

Phoenix Suns 50 O/U 52.5 (+105 /-125) 

Memphis Grizzlies 52 O/U 48.5 (-140/+115 ) 

Golden State Warriors 51 O/U 51.5 (-115/-105) 

Dallas Mavericks 47 O/U 48.5 (-115/-105) 

Utah Jazz 23 O/U 24.5 (-110/-110) - stay away

Denver Nuggets 51 O/U 49.5 (-140/+115 ) 

Minnesota Timberwolves 57 O/U 48.5 (-130/+110 ) 

Los Angeles Clippers 48 O/U 52.5 (-120/+100 ) - stay away

New Orleans Pelicans 46 O/U 44.5 (-140/+115 ) 

San Antonio Spurs 20 O/U 22.5 (-115/-105) - stay away

Los Angeles Lakers 43 O/U 45.5 (+105 /-125) - stay away

Sacramento Kings 35 O/U 33.5 (-120/+100 ) 

Portland Trail Blazers 35 O/U 39.5 (-130/+110 ) - stay away

Oklahoma City Thunder 24 O/U 23.5 (-105/-115) 

Houston Rockets 26 O/U 23.5 (-110/-110)

NBA Finals: Bucks over Nuggets

Favorites Overs: Minnesota

Favorite Unders: Chicago, Washington

Review of record: 26-15 (punted on last year)

NFL Predictions 2022

Here are my 2022-23 NFL team win predictions (over/unders and odds via the DraftKings app).

Top picks:

Houston Texans 6-11, OVER the 4.5 total (-110)

Atlanta Falcons 6-11, OVER the 5 total (+125)

High Confidence but not quite Top Picks (count as half a pick each):

Tennessee Titans 10-7, OVER the 9 total (-105)

Chicago Bears 7-10, OVER the 6 total (+100)

Medium Confidence Pick:

Detroit Lions 6-10, UNDER the 6.5 (+105). Basically due to the +105, implying 49% chance of something I think has a low 50s chance of happening. Won't count on overall record, just noting it.

Review of prior years: last year 4-0-2, bringing NFL top picks record to 24-8-3.

For the Super Bowl, don’t really like any NFC team, but by default will go with Green Bay. Bills over Packers.

NBA Predictions 2021-22

Honestly, don't feel like I have a great handle on this year, so punting on it. I would take NYK over 41.5, but not counting it towards my record either way. Leaning to Nets over Lakers in Finals (bleh).

Last year went 2-3 (what an embarrassment OKC was to the league with that shit), bringing overall record to 26-15.

NFL Predictions 2021

After skipping last year, here are my 2021-22 NFL team win predictions, with Vegas over/under in parenthesis (via https://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/win-totals). 

Buffalo Bills 12-5 (O/U: 11)

Miami Dolphins 10-7 (O/U: 9.5)

New England Patriots 10-7 (O/U: 9.5)

New York Jets 4-13 (O/U: 6)

Pittsburgh Steelers 10-7 (O/U: 8.5)

Baltimore Ravens 11-6 (O/U: 11)

Cleveland Browns 9-8 (O/U: 10.5)

Cincinnati Bengals 6-11 (O/U: 6.5)

Tennessee Titans 10-7 (O/U: 9)

Indianapolis Colts 6-11 (O/U: 9)

Houston Texans 5-12 (O/U: 4)

Jacksonville Jaguars 4-13 (O/U: 6.5)

Kansas City Chiefs 13-4 (O/U: 12.5)

Las Vegas Raiders 8-9 (O/U: 7)

Los Angeles Chargers 9-8 (O/U: 9.5)

Denver Broncos 7-10 (O/U: 8.5)

Washington Football Team 8-9 (O/U: 8.5)

New York Giants 7-10 (O/U: 7)

Dallas Cowboys 8-9 (O/U: 9)

Philadelphia Eagles 7-10 (O/U: 6.5)

Green Bay Packers 11-6 (O/U: 10)

Chicago Bears 8-9 (O/U: 7.5)

Minnesota Vikings 7-10 (O/U: 9)

Detroit Lions 5-12 (O/U: 4.5)

New Orleans Saints 11-6 (O/U: 9)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 12-5 (O/U: 12)

Carolina Panthers 5-12 (O/U: 7.5)

Atlanta Falcons 9-8 (O/U: 7.5)

Seattle Seahawks 11-6 (O/U: 10)

Los Angeles Rams 11-6 (O/U: 10.5)

Arizona Cardinals 9-8 (O/U: 8.5)

San Francisco 49ers 9-8 (O/U: 10.5)

Super Bowl: Chiefs over Rams

Favorite over: Saints

Favorite unders: Jets, Colts, Jaguars, Vikings, Panthers

Review of prior years: 2 years ago 2-0, bringing NFL top picks record to 20-8-1.

Superbowl 2021

Last week went 0-2, 1-1, 2-0. Totals 7-5, 6-6, 3-8-1.

Chiefs and Buccaneers, Chiefs favored by 3, Over/Under 56. System says Bucs 29-25. Chiefs have underplayed their offense a little, so bumping it a bit to Bucs 29-27 (underdog, and over).

To repeat my usual warning, don’t use any of my game picks as advice, I am bad at this.

NFL Playoffs 2019-20, Round 3

Last week went 3-1 on winners, 1-3 against the spread, and 1-3 on over/unders. 2 week totals, 7-3, 5-5, 2-7-1.

Buccaneers at Packers, Packers favored by 3, over/under 53. Packers 28-26 (underdog and over).

Bills at Chiefs, Chiefs favored by 3, O/U 54.5. Bills 28-26 (underdog and under). If Mahomes was closer to 100% would have taken Chiefs.

To repeat, don’t use any of my game picks as advice, I am bad at this.

NFL Playoffs 2019-20, Round 2

Last week went 4-2 on winners, 4-2 against the spread, and 1-4-1 on over/unders.

Rams at Packers, Packers favored by 6.5, over/under 45.5. Packers 24-21 (underdog and under).

Ravens at Bills, Bills favored by 2.5, O/U 49.5. Bills 26-25 (underdog and over).

Browns at Chiefs, Chiefs favored by 10, O/U 57. Chiefs 33-21 (favorite and under). EDIT: Adjusting a bit for the Chiefs resting in week 17, Chiefs 30-21 (underdog and under).

Buccaneers at Saints, Saints favored by 3, O/U 52. Saints 28-25 (forcing it and saying favorite and over).

To repeat, don’t use any of my game picks as advice, I am bad at this.

NFL Playoffs 2020-21, Round 1

Not a high degree of confidence this year (though probably shouldn’t any year, based on my track record). I know some of my scores are weird, it’s how my method works.

Colts at Bills, Bills favored by 6.5, Over/Under 51. Bills 31-24 (favorite and the over).

Rams at Seahawks, Seahawks favored by 3, O/U 42.5. Seahawks 22-21 (underdog and the over).

Bucs at Washington Football Team (still funny), Bucs favored by 9, O/U 45. Bucs 26-18 (underdog and the under).

Ravens at Titans, Ravens favored by 3, O/U 54.5. Ravens 31-24 (favorite and over).

Bears at Saints, Saints favored by 10, O/U 47.5. Saints 29-19 (too close to call on either, but will force it and take favorite and over).

Browns at Steelers, Steelers favored by 8, O/U 47.5. Steelers 28-19 (favorite and under).

Previous years:

2020: 7-4 picking winners, 4-7 against the spread, 5-6 on over/unders

2019: 5-6, 4-7, 6-5

2018: 6-5, 4-6-1

2017: 9-2, 6-5

2016: 7-4, 9-2

2015: 8-3, 4-7

2014: 6-5, 4-5-2

2013: 4-6, 3-6-1

2012: 7-4, 5-6

2011: 7-4, 6-5

2010: 5-6, 4-7

2009: 7-4, 6-4-1

2008: 6-5, 3-7-1

2007: 7-4, 6-5

2006: 5-6, 5-6

2005: 8-3, 7-4

2004: 5-6, 2-8-1

2003: 8-3, 4-7

Totals: 117-80 picking winners (59.4%), 86-104-7 against the spread (45.3%), 11-11 on over/unders (50%).

Just to be clear here, don’t use any of my game picks as advice, I am bad at this.

NBA Predictions 2020-21

 Take with the usual grain of salt. Over/Unders from Vegas Insider.

Milwaukee Bucks 53-19, O/U 49.5

Toronto Raptors 42-30, O/U 41.5

Boston Celtics 44-28, O/U 45.5

Indiana Pacers 41-31, O/U 39.5

Miami Heat 44-28, O/U 44.5

Philadelphia 76ers 43-29, O/U 45.5

Brooklyn Nets 47-25, O/U 45.5

Orlando Magic 33-39, O/U 31.5

Charlotte Hornets 24-48, O/U 25.5

Washington Wizards 37-35, O/U 32.5

Chicago Bulls 27-45, O/U 30.5

New York Knicks 21-51, O/U 22.5

Detroit Pistons 21-51, O/U 23.5

Atlanta Hawks 33-39, O/U 36.5

Cleveland Cavaliers 18-54, O/U 22.5

Los Angeles Lakers 46-26, O/U 46.5

Los Angeles Clippers 43-29, O/U 45.5

Denver Nuggets 43-29, O/U 44.5

Houston Rockets 36-36, O/U 34.5

Oklahoma City Thunder 28-44, O/U 22.5

Utah Jazz 38-34, O/U 42.5

Dallas Mavericks 43-29, O/U 42.5

Portland Trail Blazers 41-31, O/U 41.5

Memphis Grizzlies 36-36, O/U 30.5

Phoenix Suns 40-32, O/U 38.5

San Antonio Spurs 28-44, O/U 29.5

Sacramento Kings 28-44, O/U 27.5

New Orleans Pelicans 38-34, O/U 36.5

Minnesota Timberwolves 27-45, O/U 28.5

Golden State Warriors 37-35, O/U 36.5

NBA Finals: Lakers over Bucks

Favorites Overs: Milwaukee, Washington, OKC, Memphis

Favorite Unders: Chicago

Feel real good on Milwaukee, Washington and Memphis

Review of record: NBA top picks record was 24-12 before last year. Not really sure how to count the 6 picks I made. Of the overs, 1 (OKC) was already over when things shutdown, Miami was very likely to be over, and Atlanta was certain to be under. Of the unders, New Orleans was nearly certain to be under, Indiana was very likely to be over, and Houston was probably going under but it was close. Generously to me, that’d be 4-2, but I’m not counting it in my overall count. Make of it what you will.

Superbowl 2020

That went exactly meh. 2-0, 0-2, 1-1. Total of 14-16 so far.

Chiefs and 49ers, Chiefs favored by 1.5, Over/Under 53.5. The system says Chiefs 25-24. I’m adjusting it up for the Mahomes missing a couple+ factor. Chiefs 27-24.