Saturday, January 29, 2011
Tuesday, January 25, 2011
Monday, January 24, 2011
Sunday, January 23, 2011
NFL Playoff, Round 3
Last week I went 1-3 against the spread, and 2-2 picking winners, bring me to 4-4 for both.
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears, Packers favored by 3.5. People are making a little too much of how great a job the Bears D has done on Rodgers; while I don't expect him to annihilate them like he's done to others, I do expect a good game out of him. Excluding two things, the Packers are the better team, and they are both wild cards: Jay Cutler is sometimes great, and Devin Hester is often great. If they both do well, Bears could romp. If Hester is contained and Cutler is making bad decisions, Packers will blow them out. I'm looking for a mix, Bears cover but lose. Packers 23, Bears 20.
New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers, Steelers favored by 3.5. I still don't believe in Sanchez, at least not against a top D. However, that Steelers O-line is scary bad, and could lead to some big turnovers for the Jets D. My guess is Roethlisberger will handle the pressure well enough. Steelers 24, Jets 17.
Go Bears. Go away Jets.
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears, Packers favored by 3.5. People are making a little too much of how great a job the Bears D has done on Rodgers; while I don't expect him to annihilate them like he's done to others, I do expect a good game out of him. Excluding two things, the Packers are the better team, and they are both wild cards: Jay Cutler is sometimes great, and Devin Hester is often great. If they both do well, Bears could romp. If Hester is contained and Cutler is making bad decisions, Packers will blow them out. I'm looking for a mix, Bears cover but lose. Packers 23, Bears 20.
New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers, Steelers favored by 3.5. I still don't believe in Sanchez, at least not against a top D. However, that Steelers O-line is scary bad, and could lead to some big turnovers for the Jets D. My guess is Roethlisberger will handle the pressure well enough. Steelers 24, Jets 17.
Go Bears. Go away Jets.
Labels: Delusions of Grandeur, NFL, Sports
Thursday, January 20, 2011
Saturday, January 15, 2011
NFL Playoff, Round 2
Last week I went 3-1 against the spread, 2-2 picking winners.
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers, Steelers favored by 3. It'll likely be a field position slugfest of a game. But, I like the Steelers just a touch more, and Roethlisberger is 8-2 in the playoffs (not that Flacco's record is bad). Yes, picking against my preseason pick to win it all. Steelers 20, Ravens 16.
Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons, Falcons favored by 2.5. Green Bay is probably better than Atlanta. However, it's a slight difference, and Atlanta has one of the best home field advantages in the league. I'll go with the rested home team (now watch Starks run wild against them). Falcons 24, Packers 20.
Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears, Bears favored by 10. Chicago is not a very good home team. Seattle is a terrible road team. I don't trust Cutler and Martz and Smith. I don't trust Hasselbeck and the Seattle defense (at least not both twice in a row). Hmm. Sounds like a closer game than the spread to me. Again, not picking them to win, but wouldn't be shocked if it happens, maybe giving Seattle a 30% chance. Bears 27, Seahawks 20.
New York Jets at New England Patriots, Patriots favored by 8.5. The Jets are a reasonably good team. The Pats are the best team in the league, and will not at all look past this game, and will not let up even if they have a big lead late. Just know that me calling blowouts for the Pats doesn't have a good history, but it's what I really think, so it's what I'm calling. Patriots 34, Jets 17.
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers, Steelers favored by 3. It'll likely be a field position slugfest of a game. But, I like the Steelers just a touch more, and Roethlisberger is 8-2 in the playoffs (not that Flacco's record is bad). Yes, picking against my preseason pick to win it all. Steelers 20, Ravens 16.
Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons, Falcons favored by 2.5. Green Bay is probably better than Atlanta. However, it's a slight difference, and Atlanta has one of the best home field advantages in the league. I'll go with the rested home team (now watch Starks run wild against them). Falcons 24, Packers 20.
Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears, Bears favored by 10. Chicago is not a very good home team. Seattle is a terrible road team. I don't trust Cutler and Martz and Smith. I don't trust Hasselbeck and the Seattle defense (at least not both twice in a row). Hmm. Sounds like a closer game than the spread to me. Again, not picking them to win, but wouldn't be shocked if it happens, maybe giving Seattle a 30% chance. Bears 27, Seahawks 20.
New York Jets at New England Patriots, Patriots favored by 8.5. The Jets are a reasonably good team. The Pats are the best team in the league, and will not at all look past this game, and will not let up even if they have a big lead late. Just know that me calling blowouts for the Pats doesn't have a good history, but it's what I really think, so it's what I'm calling. Patriots 34, Jets 17.
Labels: Delusions of Grandeur, NFL, Sports
Sunday, January 09, 2011
NFL Playoffs
I know I'm posting this a day late, but you'll see by my performance in Saturday's picks that I'm obviously not lying about what I thought going into both games.
First a review of previous years:
2010: 5-6 picking the winner, 4-7 against the spread
2009: 7-4, 6-4-1
2008: 6-5, 3-7-1
2007: 7-4, 6-5
2006: 5-6, 5-6
2005: 8-3, 7-4
2004: 5-6, 2-8-1
2003: 8-3, 4-7
Totals: 51-37 picking winners (58%), 37-48-3 against the spread (44%). Impressive, right?
Onto the Round 1 games:
New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks, Saints favored by 10.5. I figured the Seahawks could win this game by winning the turnover battle (an ongoing issue for both teams), and by having the Saints over blitz and Hasselbeck beating the blitz; the Saints would win in almost any other scenario. Well, I was right about the blitz part of that, they did it too much and the Seahawks made them pay for it, but it turns out they didn't need to win the TO battle (it was even). A highly entertaining game, as it looked like the Saints would run away with it early, Seattle has a great stretch to go up by 14, the Saints come back and it looks like Seattle is done for (even with lead), and then one of the worst onside kicks I've ever seen pretty much seals it. I had it pegged at Saints 30-20, with about a 40% chance of Saints covering, and a 20% chance of Seattle winning; it was Seahawks 41-36. So that's one against the spread, but (like everyone I'm sure) I got the winner wrong. My only complaint about the game is that it makes it less likely that the NFL will institute a rule requiring teams to have a winning (or at least non-losing) record to make the playoffs.
New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts, Colts favored by 2.5. I had a hard time decided which team to root for. In the end, I figure the Jets are less of a threat to the Pats, and I wanted to see Manning lose points in the Brady rivalry, so rooted for the Colts to lose. Anyway, my pick was largely based on the history of Peyton Manning and Rex Ryan matching up, with Manning winning 5 times, and Rex's only victory coming when Peyton only played about half the game. I also figured neither team would be able to mount much of a comeback, as a lead would allow Manning to leisurely pick apart the Jets D, while a Jets lead would force the Colts to commit to defending the run and they aren't good/deep enough right now to do that and also do a decent job against the pass. Colts 23, Jets 17 was the call; got the Jets 17 right, but Colts only managed 16, so hurray for the Colts losing, but I got it wrong both ways.
Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs, Ravens favored by 3. The Chiefs are a decent team, but they also benefited from a pretty easy schedule; I don't see any quality wins looking over their 16 games. There's some question also about Charlie Weis about how committed he is to the team now that he's leaving; dissension in the coaching ranks is never a good thing. They do have a significant home field advantage, and Jamaal Charles is kind of ridiculous, avering 6.4 yards per carry. However, I think highly of the Ravens, and expect that they'll be able to go in there and out-physical them and push them around a bit. I doubt we'll see a blowout, but it'll probably appear to be a closer game in the final score than it actually turns out to be. Ravens 23, Chiefs 16.
Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles, Eagles favored by 2.5. I could see this game going almost any way, except for a low-scoring slugfest. Green Bay is probably the best team in the NFC, but I wouldn't give them a big edge over the Eagles, if both teams are at 100%. However, there's a good chance that Vick is hurt enough that it will affect his effectiveness. Like I said, it's unlikely this game will surprise, just because I'm prepared for so many outcomes, but I'll call it for GB. Packers 27, Eagles 24.
First a review of previous years:
2010: 5-6 picking the winner, 4-7 against the spread
2009: 7-4, 6-4-1
2008: 6-5, 3-7-1
2007: 7-4, 6-5
2006: 5-6, 5-6
2005: 8-3, 7-4
2004: 5-6, 2-8-1
2003: 8-3, 4-7
Totals: 51-37 picking winners (58%), 37-48-3 against the spread (44%). Impressive, right?
Onto the Round 1 games:
New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks, Saints favored by 10.5. I figured the Seahawks could win this game by winning the turnover battle (an ongoing issue for both teams), and by having the Saints over blitz and Hasselbeck beating the blitz; the Saints would win in almost any other scenario. Well, I was right about the blitz part of that, they did it too much and the Seahawks made them pay for it, but it turns out they didn't need to win the TO battle (it was even). A highly entertaining game, as it looked like the Saints would run away with it early, Seattle has a great stretch to go up by 14, the Saints come back and it looks like Seattle is done for (even with lead), and then one of the worst onside kicks I've ever seen pretty much seals it. I had it pegged at Saints 30-20, with about a 40% chance of Saints covering, and a 20% chance of Seattle winning; it was Seahawks 41-36. So that's one against the spread, but (like everyone I'm sure) I got the winner wrong. My only complaint about the game is that it makes it less likely that the NFL will institute a rule requiring teams to have a winning (or at least non-losing) record to make the playoffs.
New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts, Colts favored by 2.5. I had a hard time decided which team to root for. In the end, I figure the Jets are less of a threat to the Pats, and I wanted to see Manning lose points in the Brady rivalry, so rooted for the Colts to lose. Anyway, my pick was largely based on the history of Peyton Manning and Rex Ryan matching up, with Manning winning 5 times, and Rex's only victory coming when Peyton only played about half the game. I also figured neither team would be able to mount much of a comeback, as a lead would allow Manning to leisurely pick apart the Jets D, while a Jets lead would force the Colts to commit to defending the run and they aren't good/deep enough right now to do that and also do a decent job against the pass. Colts 23, Jets 17 was the call; got the Jets 17 right, but Colts only managed 16, so hurray for the Colts losing, but I got it wrong both ways.
Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs, Ravens favored by 3. The Chiefs are a decent team, but they also benefited from a pretty easy schedule; I don't see any quality wins looking over their 16 games. There's some question also about Charlie Weis about how committed he is to the team now that he's leaving; dissension in the coaching ranks is never a good thing. They do have a significant home field advantage, and Jamaal Charles is kind of ridiculous, avering 6.4 yards per carry. However, I think highly of the Ravens, and expect that they'll be able to go in there and out-physical them and push them around a bit. I doubt we'll see a blowout, but it'll probably appear to be a closer game in the final score than it actually turns out to be. Ravens 23, Chiefs 16.
Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles, Eagles favored by 2.5. I could see this game going almost any way, except for a low-scoring slugfest. Green Bay is probably the best team in the NFC, but I wouldn't give them a big edge over the Eagles, if both teams are at 100%. However, there's a good chance that Vick is hurt enough that it will affect his effectiveness. Like I said, it's unlikely this game will surprise, just because I'm prepared for so many outcomes, but I'll call it for GB. Packers 27, Eagles 24.
Labels: Delusions of Grandeur, NFL, Sports
